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Month: April 2007

How should we judge the performance of Team Cameron?

How should we judge the performance of Team Cameron?

What will be the Tory vote share on Thursday? There’s no doubt that all the parties will be spinning like mad in the next couple of days to talk up the prospects of their opponents and to dampen down expectations about themselves. We have this silly game every year so that whatever the outcome all the parties can claim that they have done better than expected. Yawn…Yawn. But what performances should we be expecting and what, in particular, will be…

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Betting strategies for a big political week

Betting strategies for a big political week

How prices change in the final few days One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community. They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party…

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How much can we trust the Scottish polls?

How much can we trust the Scottish polls?

Have the “funny surveys” been over-stating Labour? The table has been adapted from Wikipedia and shows the incredible variation in the polling surveys of the regional or list vote ahead of next Thursday’s crucial election for the Scottish Parliament. On the one hand there have been the surveys by those pollsters which are listed as members of the British Polling Council which are required as part of their membership to follow strict transparency rules. Within two working days of a…

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How will Labour do on Thursday?

How will Labour do on Thursday?

How well can the PBC community predict the elections? How many Labour members will be elected to the Scottish Parliament? (50 in 2003) 51-129 seats 46-50 seats 41-45 seats 36-40 seats 31-35 seats 0-30 seats    How many Labour members will be elected to the Welsh Assembly? (30 in 2003) 31-60 seats 27-30 seats 24-26 seats 21-23 seats 0-20 seats    What will be the net change in Labour’s total of local council seats as a result of Thursday elections?…

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Is the gap too wide for Sego?

Is the gap too wide for Sego?

Should Sarky backers worry about polling creep? Taking the polls as a whole it’s clear that there has been a slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday. This has been reflected in the betting in the UK. In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s voting Ségolène Royal moved out to about 3.7/1. That’s been edging back gently and is now at 3.1/1. If the daily poll from Ipsos – the pollster…

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Who’ll stand aside – Meacher or McDonnell?

Who’ll stand aside – Meacher or McDonnell?

The main development in the Labour leadership this morning is the above story about a possible deal between the rival left-wing candidates, Michael Meacher and John McDonnell that only one of them would stand in the coming contest. For punters the question is which. For whoever it is then the chances are that that person will get the nominations and be in a position to challenge. Almost certainly the agreed candidate would see a tightening of their price and that…

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YouGov polls: Thread 1 “the decline of Brown”

YouGov polls: Thread 1 “the decline of Brown”

Labour’s wannabee leader continues to trail the Bullingdon boy Two threads this morning both from new YouGov polls in the Daily Telegraph. The first coverered in the previous story shows a sensational rise in support for the Greens ahead of next week’s election for the Edinburgh parliament. The second, which is the papers main lead, is from the main April survey by YouGov. The focus is on Gordon’s position in relation to Cameron in the forced choice question of whether,…

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YouGov polls: Thread 2 “the rise of the Greens”

YouGov polls: Thread 2 “the rise of the Greens”

YouGov finds 9% support for the party in the Scotland elections An extraordinary poll next Thursday’s Scottish elections by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph shows a big surge for the Greens suggesting that they might provide the biggest sensation in next Thursday’s election – and maybe not just north of the border. In the list vote where people express a preference for a party for the “top-up” seats YouGov found with changes on last week: SNP 31% (-4): LAB 27%…

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