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Month: July 2004

Could the university seats be Blair’s undoing?

Could the university seats be Blair’s undoing?

Newcastle LibDem leaflet Does retaining the university seats hold the key to Tony Blair’s premiership? Applying the Martin Baxter caculator to the latest poll figures gives Labour 346 seats – 22 more than is required for a majority and the bottom of the current spread markets on the party. But how safe are the 22? Could disproportionate swings or highly focused targeting take away this number or even more seats leaving Tony Blair without a majority. Could those targets include…

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Poll boosts for Lib Dems & Labour in UK and Kerry in US

Poll boosts for Lib Dems & Labour in UK and Kerry in US

UPDATE 2pm US ELECTIONS LATEST – Kerry/Edwards open up five point lead A poll just published and surveyed during the Boston Convention shows that the Democratic ticket has opened up a 5% lead over Bush/Cheney. The figures from Zogby international are 48-43. Amongst men the gap is just one percent – amongst women it is 9%. Prices have stayed stable with most UK bookmakers staying on 5/6 on both. The Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “political futures” are traded like…

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The Political Betting People Markets

The Political Betting People Markets

Will Tony, Peter and Michael hang on to their jobs? While the focus has been on by-elections and their implications for the General Election there continues to be lots of activity on the people markets – particularly on those involving Tony Blair. Given the confident way he dealt with the Butler report and the by-election aftermath we think that the odds on Blair to be Prime Minister Before End of Next General Election at 8/15 are pretty generous. We can’t…

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Will Labour recover?

Will Labour recover?

Or is the “Love Affair” over? With the latest spread prices showing, not surprisingly, a further move to the Lib Dems at the expense of the Conservatives the big question for those trying to “call” the next General Election is whether and how much Labour can recover from poll ratings that the party has not seen in a generation. Is this just the normal dip of a party in power, as argued here by the head of Populus, Andrew Cooper,…

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Betting Boosted by the Boston Bounce

Betting Boosted by the Boston Bounce

John Kerry and John Edwards – looking to maximise their appeal After Day Two of the Boston Convention the Kerry-Edwards ticket for the Democratic nomination is just nosing ahead ahead of Bush in the betting markets as the expected Boston bounce takes effect. The Betfair betting exchange has, at time of posting, Kerry at 20/21 against 1/1 for Bush. With most UK bookmakers the Kerry price has tightened to 5/6, the same as Bush. In the US the Iowa Electronic…

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The pollster’s view of his poll

The pollster’s view of his poll

Andrew Cooper, head of Populus, posted this comment last night about his latest 30-28-28 poll. We thought it should be given a wider platform. Don’t look at the micro-movements – concentrate on the big picture. The next election result is not going to be 30-28-28; if the election had happened over the weekend when we polled the result wouldn’t have been 30-28-28. People are by and large aware of the context in which they’re being asked. The most telling number…

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Monday Call – July 26 2004

Monday Call – July 26 2004

Populus poll means – “Lib Dems four seats off being official opposition: Labour losing majority” Apart from a marking down of the Lib Dems the betting markets have hardly reacted to yesterday’s sensational Populus poll in the News of the World which when translated into seats means that Labour would not have an overall majority in the House of Commons and the Lib Dems would be just four seats short of being the official opposition. The figures with changes on…

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Keep on arguing – it keeps the prices up!

Keep on arguing – it keeps the prices up!

If we all thought the same there’d be no political betting! Yesterday’s SELL CALL on Labour at 346 seats in the spread markets has created a good debate and opened up a split between those who think that in spite of their current performance Labour are going to do just fine in the General Election and those who think they’ll have a struggle. Nobody, though, has been bold enough to put the argument that the Tories will end up winners!…

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