Andy Burnham’s victory in first Gtr Manchester Mayoral Race should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion

Andy Burnham’s victory in first Gtr Manchester Mayoral Race should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion

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Manchester Evening News May 19 2016 Former LAB Health Secs have flopped in mayoral races before The biggest election, in terms of the one involving the most number of voters, planned for 2017 is the May contest for the elected Mayor of Greater Manchester. The bookies make ex-LAB health sec and twice failed leadership candidate, Andy Burnham the tight odds on favourite. Ladbrokes have him at 1/6. As well as the City of Manchester itself it covers a huge range…

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The plan for a progressive alliance might have an itsy bitsy teenie weenie flaw with it

The plan for a progressive alliance might have an itsy bitsy teenie weenie flaw with it

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How the 2015 general election result would look like under different voting systems by The @electoralreform Societyhttps://t.co/Gyvm8kJbyt pic.twitter.com/DPwiWsYk99 — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2016 With Leave polling 52% and the Tories & UKIP regularly polling around 50% plus in the polls a progressive alliance might be doomed. In recent weeks we’ve seen much talk of a progressive alliance to stop the Tories/Brexit/Right wing populism, and with the result of the Richmond Park by election that talk has ceased to be…

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An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

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Well this a headline I thought I'd never see. Liam Fox talking about remaining in the customs union. https://t.co/dDfzc2hy7T pic.twitter.com/t05fz3G3WB — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2016 Intriguing Liam Fox interview on #Marr, says he'll accept Cabinet decision on EU deal, even if it's staying in Customs Union + transition. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 18, 2016 I have to admit this surprised me, I’ve always had Liam Fox down as one of the staunchest Leavers in the Tory Party…

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The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit negotiations

The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit negotiations

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How should Britain approach the farewell negotiations with the rest of the EU? David Davis indirectly confirmed that the Government has yet to reach an agreed line when he told Hillary Benn in Parliament on 14 December that the Government’s plan would only be published when it was ready. On the one hand it is refreshing that the Government is no longer pretending that its silence is based on the principle that loose lips sink Brexits.  On the other, it…

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Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

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Opinium has the LDs down to 6% & CON lead down 5 to 7% CON: 38% (-3)LAB: 31% (+2)UKIP: 13% (+1)LD: 6% (-1)GRN: 4% (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2016 Public approval ratings (Approve / Disapprove):May: 42 / 27Corbyn: 21 / 47Farron: 15 / 32Nuttall: 11 / 33Sturgeon: 26 / 38(Opinium) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 17, 2016 Throughout 2016 Opinium has had the LDs at 2½-3% below the average for other pollsters. This has become a "house…

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POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

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Embed from Getty Images   The first poll commissioned by the ‘Polling Matters’ podcast, conducted by Opinium, shows little appetite for another referendum but we shouldn’t assume voters want a ‘hard Brexit’ either writes Keiran Pedley Since the EU referendum result was announced last June, many have sought to explain on behalf of voters why they voted the way they did and therefore surmise what they want from any Brexit deal. To try and understand what is really going on…

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Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

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He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest Who would have thought a year ago that as 2016 draws to a close, both Nigel Farage and David Cameron would have departed the stage while Jeremy Corbyn looks all the more secure in post? It’s a salutary reminder that there are always risks in getting too far ahead of ourselves. But where there are risks, so there are opportunities. At the risk of setting up an almighty hostage to fortune,…

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Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

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One of the irritating things about current polling is that not all firms are providing a breakdown based on referendum vote. This seems odd given that what people did on June 23rd says more about them politically than just about anything else. One pollster that does so in every survey is YouGov and the splits in the chart above are based on its latest poll. My plan is to track these numbers on a regular basis. Currently amongst REMAIN voters…

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