Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

I might be wrong but am yet to be convinced On the UK front next year looks set to be dominated by BREXIT – the process of extracting the UK from the EU. Doing this successfully is set to be the defining act of Theresa May’s premiership and even though the referendum decision was more than six months ago we still have little idea what this is going to mean. The PM has managed to keep up her strategy of…

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The winners under First Past The Post should rigidly adhere to election spending laws

The winners under First Past The Post should rigidly adhere to election spending laws

The chart above is self-explanatory and illustrates clearly how well the electoral system treated the Tories at the last election and how hard it was on the smaller parties particularly UKIP. General elections are won in the marginal constituencies where clearly the parties focus their resources both financial and people. But the law lays down very strict spending limits on how much can be spent by each party within each seat. Parties shouldn’t be able to buy victory simply because…

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In the other election in Copeland on GE2015 day voters rejected both LAB and CON. A by-election pointer?

In the other election in Copeland on GE2015 day voters rejected both LAB and CON. A by-election pointer?

With the big Westminster by-election in 2017 set to be the Cumbrian seat of Copeland currently held by Labour it is worth looking at another recent election in the area to get a sense of the voting patterns in the area. Back on general election day in the part of the constituency covered by Copeland non-metropolitan district council voters had for the first time a directly elected mayoral election. Copeland is just one of three such councils in England which…

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Surely Douglas Carswell can’t remain in UKIP for much longer, can he?

Surely Douglas Carswell can’t remain in UKIP for much longer, can he?

Embed from Getty Images Just before Christmas, Douglas Carswell UKIP’s sole MP received an interesting present from former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who effectively told Carswell to begat off. Douglas Carswell should not be in Ukip, Nigel Farage has said of the party’s only MP, despite vowing not to interfere in internal politics after stepping down as leader. Relations between Farage and the Clacton MP have soured since Carswell’s high-profile defection from the Conservatives in 2014. “He shouldn’t be in the…

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The big one: Cyclefree announces her awards for 2016

The big one: Cyclefree announces her awards for 2016

Based on NO polling, focus groups or other quasi-scientific methods The Nicky Morgan Award for Lack of Self-Awareness A difficult one, this, with so many contenders, not least Ms Morgan herself. But in the end this was jointly shared by the EU and Britain. Both displayed monumental self-regard and a total inability to understand that, perhaps, just perhaps, their own behaviour had a teensy bit to do with why they could not get on. The Ken Livingstone Award for Trashing…

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Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against BREXIT but that’s not been picked in proper polls

Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against BREXIT but that’s not been picked in proper polls

Express & Star Dec 24 2016 The YouGov view of BREXIT tracker There was a flurry of activity just before Christmas prompted by the publication in the Wolverhampton & Shropshire Express and Star of the “poll” at the top contrasting views on BREXIT now with a similar “poll” carried out in the same manner in March last year. As can be seen it shows a dramatic change in opinion. There are said to have been three other local newspaper polls…

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The St John PB Christmas Day Crossword

The St John PB Christmas Day Crossword

Happy Christmas to everybody For several years there has been a Christmas Day cross-word on PB pioneered by long-standing PBer StJohn. Here’s the 2016 version – enjoy. Across 1. Fly in two bloggers (6) 4. Peacekeepers retreated while hiding a blogger – it’s sickening (8) 10. Left annoyed (6,3) 11. Speak at the lowest level (5) 12. Bill introduced by former Prime Minister under duress (7) 13. Ike’s and Abe’s, say? (7) 14. Division in Conservative Socialist Union (5) 15….

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