politicalbetting.com – Page 992 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

And now BuzzWord bingo on Trump’s Inaugural speech

9/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Can you guess the words/phrases he might use? Well done to Shadsy, head of political odds at Ladbrokes, for getting this together – buzzword bingo on what’s almost certainly going to be the most watched and scrutinised political speech of 2017 – the Trump address at his inauguration on January 20th. These require a huge amount of work by the bookie and and awful lot of risk. Trump has made very few set-piece speeches though his very extensive Twitter feed…

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Macron at 6/1 looks the value bet for next French president

8/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By far the biggest political betting market at the moment is on the French presidential election the first round of which takes place in April. On the Betfair exchange alone £2m has been matched which suggests that this will be a huge market when we get to polling day. All the focus has on the far right contender, Marine Le Pen, who at about 23% is currently the second favourite behind Francois Fillon, the Republican nominee, who is rated on…

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The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

8/1/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Britain is Brexiting, Trump is triumphant in the USA, France is flirting with the Front National and in countries as diverse as Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands, the far right is doing more than alright. Yes, yes, but what does it mean? Much energy has been expended analysing why populism and the alt right are doing so well right now. Rather less has been spent on considering the practical implications not just for individual countries…

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Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

8/1/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images I can’t quite believe I placed this bet Two of my underlying assumptions about politics in this country are 1) Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next general election and 2) Were a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party to lose a general election (especially if it is a comprehensive defeat) Labour will return to political sanity and appoint someone more centrist and electable, but what if those assumptions are wrong, cui bono? I’ve decided…

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CON starts 2017 by going straight for the Labour’s jugular in Copeland byelection – Corbyn’s opposition to nuclear

7/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Tory leaflet in Copeland on what looks set to be LAB's weak spot – JC's views on things nuclear Pic via @MrBrownsays pic.twitter.com/oWQiarrzON — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2017 If it’s a LAB hold then it will be in spite of JC not because of him Even though the sitting MP has yet to resign and no candidates have been selected campaigning has already started in the Copeland by-election – the first such contest in a LAB-CON marginal in…

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How long can May’s honeymoon period go on?

7/1/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Most other mid-term boosts have dissolved after 6 months If the five years of this parliament were compressed into the space of a football match, we’d have only just reached the half-hour mark. It feels like longer, though that might be because there’s been a lot packed in: six leadership elections across the four main parties, a change of PM, an historic referendum, and Labour’s biggest crisis since at least the early 1980s. In the normal scheme of things, Labour…

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UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

6/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A few months ago Harry Hayfield, PB’s local election specialist, introduced a new element in his regular monitoring of local by-election: dividing them up into whether the local authority areas voted REMAIN or LEAVE on June 23rd. This enables us to compare the two areas. A lot of focus has been put on seat changes but the above data looks at how the vote shares have changed in the two types of seat. The vote change relates to what happened…

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The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating strongly with those who voted for BREXIT

6/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The majority of leavers think BREXIT will be good for the NHS The latest YouGov out today, asks a question that has nor been put for some time – whether people think that leaving the EU will be good for the NHS. This was, of course, the biggest message from the officially designated LEAVE campaign and was the main theme of its referendum broadcasts. There was dispute over the £350m figure but the campaign held firm and continued using it…

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