This year’s German election: Angela Merkel’s re-election might not be as certain as the betting markets think

This year’s German election: Angela Merkel’s re-election might not be as certain as the betting markets think

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Latest German polls Nick Palmer on the other big European contest in 2017 The general assumption that Merkel is certain to be re-elected as Chancellor after the elections later this year is reflected in the betting odds. At the time of writing, her Betfair odds are 1.73. However, it’s always a good idea for punters to check that assumptions remain valid. The surprise selection of Martin Schulz as her Social Democrat (SPD) challenger has produced an immediate bump in SPD…

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Polling Matters / Opinium survey: Public backs Brexit as the right decision by 52% to 39%

Polling Matters / Opinium survey: Public backs Brexit as the right decision by 52% to 39%

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New polling this week shows Leave voters are convinced they made the right decision as Remainers stumble on leaderless writes Keiran Pedley With Trump and May very much making the headlines this week you may have missed the second Polling Matters / Opinium survey (full data here). This survey sought to measure public perceptions of the Brexit vote seven months on and also the strength of feeling on either side. The overarching message is that the public backs Brexit as…

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Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 and the latest PB cartoon

Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 and the latest PB cartoon

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Ladbrokes have put up a market on Donald Trump no to visit the UK before the end of 2017. I took the 5/1 which I thought was a good price, especially in the light of William Hill offering 4/6 on Trump not to make a state visit in 2017, William Hill are offering 11/10 that a state visit will take place. Whilst the terms aren’t quite the same, I’m prepared to stake money on the 5/1 for the following reasons….

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Angels and Fools. Cyclefree on Trump’s latest Executive Order

Angels and Fools. Cyclefree on Trump’s latest Executive Order

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Embed from Getty Images “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”  Well, to judge by the commentary over the last 48 hours Trump is a fool – and a chaotic and illiberal one to boot.  Whatever the many issues with his latest Executive Order, it could just as easily be said that only a fool would rush in to opine.  But at the risk of looking foolish, one criticism of the Trump approach is that it looks at the…

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Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum before 2019

Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum before 2019

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Paddy Power have a market up on whether we’ll have a referendum on a UK-wide referendum on in/out EU membership or on acceptance of new membership terms. Must offer option of membership terms. I’m backing the No side of this bet. I just cannot see Theresa May realistically offering a referendum on these terms, unless she was interested in her tenure as PM rivalling Neville Chamberlain’s or Alec Douglas-Home’s tenure for brevity. The more realistic way I can see a second…

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UKIP’s leader, Doc Nuttall, no longer odds-on favourite to take Stoke Central

UKIP’s leader, Doc Nuttall, no longer odds-on favourite to take Stoke Central

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There’s been a change in the Stoke central by-election betting with renewed interest in LAB and the move to Paul Nuttall, the UKIP leader, easing off. The big gap between UKIP and the main parties is that the latter have much more expertise and the basic infrastructure required to mount effectively FPTP election campaigns. UKIP, as I keep on pointing out, has never gained a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. A critical element in contests like this is data….

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Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling

Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling

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How long will it take to restore internal discipline in the post-Corbyn era? “Damn your principles; stick to your party!” With such lofty dismissiveness did Disraeli once berate a colleague thinking of rebelling. It is not just hard but impossible to think of Jeremy Corbyn using like words, yet they are the currency of every successful parliamentary leader, if not always put so bluntly. Not just the leader either. For all the myths of party whips terrorising and bribing MPs…

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