The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May’s plan for BREXIT

The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May’s plan for BREXIT

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But what happens of the blues don’t take the LAB seat on February 23rd? Last night a Copeland voter emailed the above copy of a personalised letter that had come to him from Theresa May. The contents are very revealing about what message the Tories are hoping will come from them taking the seat from LAB in 23 days time. The Tories are looking to the result as a vindication of the strategy outlined in the PM’s speech earlier in…

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The lack of options for Brexit Britain

The lack of options for Brexit Britain

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Embed from Getty Images   Since the Brexit vote, British politics has been curiously alternativeless.  The government rules without any effective opposition.  The Prime Minister was installed by her party as the only imaginable choice once the other would-be contenders had been properly scrutinised.  Theresa May was not particularly inspiring.  But what else could the Conservative party have done? The Prime Minister has spent some months reviewing her options, only to find that she has none.  She has rightly concluded…

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This year’s German election: Angela Merkel’s re-election might not be as certain as the betting markets think

This year’s German election: Angela Merkel’s re-election might not be as certain as the betting markets think

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Latest German polls Nick Palmer on the other big European contest in 2017 The general assumption that Merkel is certain to be re-elected as Chancellor after the elections later this year is reflected in the betting odds. At the time of writing, her Betfair odds are 1.73. However, it’s always a good idea for punters to check that assumptions remain valid. The surprise selection of Martin Schulz as her Social Democrat (SPD) challenger has produced an immediate bump in SPD…

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Polling Matters / Opinium survey: Public backs Brexit as the right decision by 52% to 39%

Polling Matters / Opinium survey: Public backs Brexit as the right decision by 52% to 39%

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New polling this week shows Leave voters are convinced they made the right decision as Remainers stumble on leaderless writes Keiran Pedley With Trump and May very much making the headlines this week you may have missed the second Polling Matters / Opinium survey (full data here). This survey sought to measure public perceptions of the Brexit vote seven months on and also the strength of feeling on either side. The overarching message is that the public backs Brexit as…

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Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 and the latest PB cartoon

Why I’ve taken the 5/1 on Trump not to visit the UK in 2017 and the latest PB cartoon

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Ladbrokes have put up a market on Donald Trump no to visit the UK before the end of 2017. I took the 5/1 which I thought was a good price, especially in the light of William Hill offering 4/6 on Trump not to make a state visit in 2017, William Hill are offering 11/10 that a state visit will take place. Whilst the terms aren’t quite the same, I’m prepared to stake money on the 5/1 for the following reasons….

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Angels and Fools. Cyclefree on Trump’s latest Executive Order

Angels and Fools. Cyclefree on Trump’s latest Executive Order

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Embed from Getty Images “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”  Well, to judge by the commentary over the last 48 hours Trump is a fool – and a chaotic and illiberal one to boot.  Whatever the many issues with his latest Executive Order, it could just as easily be said that only a fool would rush in to opine.  But at the risk of looking foolish, one criticism of the Trump approach is that it looks at the…

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Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum before 2019

Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum before 2019

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Paddy Power have a market up on whether we’ll have a referendum on a UK-wide referendum on in/out EU membership or on acceptance of new membership terms. Must offer option of membership terms. I’m backing the No side of this bet. I just cannot see Theresa May realistically offering a referendum on these terms, unless she was interested in her tenure as PM rivalling Neville Chamberlain’s or Alec Douglas-Home’s tenure for brevity. The more realistic way I can see a second…

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