Trump’s approval ratings, fake news, leader ratings, and immigration – all in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Trump’s approval ratings, fake news, leader ratings, and immigration – all in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr (Head of Sky Data) to discuss Donald Trump’s approval rating and latest controversies, YouGov polling on ‘Fake News’ and the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which this week takes a look at immigration (see image above) and the approval ratings of Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and other party leaders including (topically) UKIP leader Paul Nuttall. Our poll on immigration looks to take an in-depth…

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UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

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UKIP now down to 30% chance in Stoke Central on Betfair. Sharp fall following the unravelling of Nuttall's Hillsborough claims pic.twitter.com/M4LEyThH6S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017 Latest Paul Nuttall leaflet in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/4nrsAzAj6q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017

How Labour fights back; or dies

How Labour fights back; or dies

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Embed from Getty Images   Labour probably has one last chance to return to relevancy, writes Joff Wild. Who members choose as the party’s next leader will make or break it. The death of social democracy in Europe, it turns out, has been greatly exaggerated. A look at opinion polls in three of the continent’s four G8 economies shows that the centre-left is competitive and could be governing by the end of the year. That the Democrat party in Italy,…

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The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

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As a consequence of Labour right wing MPs deciding to perform the Farewell Symphony through the medium of interpretive dance, political observers have two Parliamentary by-elections to brighten up a dank February. In normal circumstances these would both be easy Labour holds. Yet, following a cascade of money that has no doubt been prompted by Labour’s speleological exploration of new polling depths, the prices offered by the bookies suggest something very different. In Stoke Central, Labour are narrow favourites ahead…

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By-election round up

By-election round up

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EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall admits his claims about losing close friends at #Hillsborough are false https://t.co/CtpCcAh7fA pic.twitter.com/jdzxz7C2aq — Hits Radio News | Liverpool & North West (@HitsLpoolNews) February 14, 2017 Suppose it's time for this again. pic.twitter.com/ylBdwnxGF7 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 14, 2017 Here's an old UKIP leaflet in which Paul Nuttall claims to be a "former professional footballer". He isn't. https://t.co/DTTrbEykeG pic.twitter.com/36NC9rGmJE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 14, 2017 Boost for Nuttall in Stoke Central. Nigel Farage…

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Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-election without fully scrutinising his Twitter history?

Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-election without fully scrutinising his Twitter history?

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Now LAB's Stoke byelection candidate gets into trouble for offensive tweets aimed at women. Good for LDs? https://t.co/9JBN21pP0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2017 Snell’s controversial Tweets won’t cause switching to UKIP but could depress turnout In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is…

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Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

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But remember December’s Richmond Park betting Like BREXIT, Trump and Richmond Park the betting could be pointing us in the wrong direction It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope. In fact looking at Richmond Park on Betfair 2 days beforehand the price of the eventual winner was even longer than Trump or Leave….

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No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

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There’ve been two excellent pieces of journalism today on the Stoke Central by-election which both provide some insights and in broad terms are in the same area. The FT’s Sebastian Payne has the video report above and the excellent Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has stuck his neck out and is suggesting that LAB’s organisational strength will see it home. This is from the Bush piece: “..Ukip have a problem: finding their voters and getting them to the polling…

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