The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

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1) Part one: Keiran speaks to Mick Fealty of Sluggerotoole.com about what we learned from last week’s elections in Northern Ireland, who the winners and losers were and what happens next… 2) Part two: Keiran discusses this week’s polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov on behalf of Ian Warren at Election Data. Keiran is joined by Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Emma Bean to discuss how vulnerable Corbyn is and who might lead Labour into 2020 if he stands down. The…

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If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

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The 2017 version of the pasty tax? At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax. Well today’s big budget announcement from the Chancellor that the self-employed are going to see the NI contributions going up is going to be a hard one to explain and we’ve already seen the start of a storm brewing. One section of the…

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Why I am not playing budget bingo this year

Why I am not playing budget bingo this year

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William Hill budget bingo pic.twitter.com/9z1SjyOJo8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2017 .@SportingIndex budget betting https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/pqJnXS9FjF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2017 The novelty of this year’s budget, which takes place after PMQs at about 1245, is that George Osborne is neither Chancellor nor shadow chancellor – the first time this has happened since 2005. So few people have held the shadow or actual position that you have to go back nearly a quarter of a century to…

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In a move reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher the PM sacks Lord Heseltine for his BREXIT bill rebellion

In a move reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher the PM sacks Lord Heseltine for his BREXIT bill rebellion

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Making a martyr of Hezza mightn’t be a smart idea In a key vote in the House of Lords on the Article 50 bill the government was defeated by 366 to 268 on an amendment that would give Parliament a ‘meaningful vote’ on the Brexit deal when that is resolved. Upto 20 CON peers are said to have rebelled and others were encouraged to abstain. Later Heseltine, who’s now 83 was a leading cabinet minister in the Thatcher era who…

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Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

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The Prime Minister says there won’t be one and I believe her One thing that we have learnt about Theresa May since she took over Downing Street last July is that she does endeavour to follow the statement she makes. She has said repeatedly that there will be no election and it would appear highly opportunistic for her to go against that. It would also be out of character. Labour will not vote for one given their double digit polling…

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Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

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The by-election selection battle could be bloody A few days ago there was an excellent piece in the Manchester Evening News about Gorton constituency Labour party and the ongoing fights within it between the warring factions. It has been so bad that it has effectively been under special measures for well over a decade and the choice of who’ll take over what appears to be a totally safe seat will bring this out into the open. “Last year a mammoth…

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Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

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Embed from Getty Images Unionism is at a crossroads. But that crossroads has a clear signpost. The signpost was the 2017 Assembly election. Make no mistake, 2017 was a bad election, indeed a terrible election for Unionism. Of the 18-seat reduction caused by the 2016 Act, 16 were lost by Unionists. But look at why those seats were lost. They were lost because Sinn Fein were able to tap into an angry Nationalist pool of voters, stirred up by the…

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