Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images The first of the big 3 elections in EU countries this year After the last Ice Age, Britain and the Netherlands were joined by land. The Thames and the Rhine were part of a single river system.  Following an inundation caused by a megatsunami, the two were separated, ironically, under a torrent of water. In 2016, European politics was hit by the megatsunami of Brexit, separating Britain from the rest of Europe.  Are there previously joined…

Read More Read More

As we edge towards the enactment of the A50 Bill Nicola has just made Theresa’s task harder

As we edge towards the enactment of the A50 Bill Nicola has just made Theresa’s task harder

Comments 0 Comment

The political price of hard brexit could be a smaller UK TMay’s reaction to Sturgeon’s InyRef2 announcement was that the Scottish FM and SNP leader was “playing politics” – a term I generally conclude to mean that what’s been said has been highly effective. Certainly the suggestions that TMay might defer invoking A50 until the end of the month suggests there’s a need to look again at her strategy and the rhetoric she will deploy when the formal process of…

Read More Read More

The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

Comments 0 Comment

Lots of activity from the bookies following Nicola Stugeon’s announcement that the SNP is going for a second IndyRef because of the vastly changed circumstances as a result of BREXIT. The Ladbrokes betting: Ladbrokes latest betting Next Independence Referendum 4/6 Before end 2020 11/10 Not before end of 2020 Year of next Independence Referendum 25 2017 7/4 2018 5/2 2019 10 2020 11/10 2021 or later Result of next Referendum 8/11 YES 11/10 NO (If held before end 2020) WILLIAM HILL…. SECOND…

Read More Read More

The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

Comments 0 Comment

Most polls still have the purples in double figures They are routinely derided by others.  The press loves to print stories of their wackier examples.  They are marginalised.  Their public figures are held up to ridicule.  Yet they make up roughly one in ten of the adult population.  I write, of course, of UKIP supporters. Who are these people?  Where do they come from?  And why, eight months after Leave won the referendum and with the vote being implemented in…

Read More Read More

Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

Comments 0 Comment

With Scottish Independence back on the agenda and Northern Ireland heading for crisis, Keiran Pedley argues that London is far too complacent about the future of the Union. Following last week’s poll by Ipsos Mori showing an apparent spike in support for Scottish Independence and Jeremy Corbyn’s comments this weekend suggesting that he is ‘fine’ with a second referendum, it feels like a good time to unveil the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. Our latest survey focused on UK…

Read More Read More

If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

Comments 0 Comment

Front cover of latest edition of Prospect The polls/leader ratings, by-elections and the locals all pointing in one direction My heading and the front cover of the latest Prospect might appear harsh but how else can you describe Labour’s predicament? It has a leader who is electorally toxic who is kept in place by a party membership that remains broadly supportive. Certainly if there was another leadership election and Corbyn stood it is hard to see how he could be…

Read More Read More

George Galloway could put himself forward for the Manchester Gorton by-election

George Galloway could put himself forward for the Manchester Gorton by-election

Comments 0 Comment

When are the bookies going to take note of this – George Galloway may enter race to become Gorton MP https://t.co/ce0JQ5ADxy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2017 .@LadPolitics 33/1 on Galloway for Gorton is same price you opened on him for 2012 Bradford W by-election. As you'll recall he won — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2017 If he runs that could damage Labour Back in 2012 my best political bet was on George Galloway in the Bradford West…

Read More Read More

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Comments 0 Comment

Time to think about some contingency planning The last few years have seen a profusion of long-odds political bets come in. When they have, it’s been because the bookies, the punters or both have misread the electorate, the candidate(s) or the process. I think there’s another outside opportunity now. This week’s Budget cannot in any sense be regarded as priming the Conservatives for a snap election. Presumably, Philip Hammond didn’t anticipate quite the reaction to his NIC proposals that did…

Read More Read More