The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

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Lots of activity from the bookies following Nicola Stugeon’s announcement that the SNP is going for a second IndyRef because of the vastly changed circumstances as a result of BREXIT. The Ladbrokes betting: Ladbrokes latest betting Next Independence Referendum 4/6 Before end 2020 11/10 Not before end of 2020 Year of next Independence Referendum 25 2017 7/4 2018 5/2 2019 10 2020 11/10 2021 or later Result of next Referendum 8/11 YES 11/10 NO (If held before end 2020) WILLIAM HILL…. SECOND…

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The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

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Most polls still have the purples in double figures They are routinely derided by others.  The press loves to print stories of their wackier examples.  They are marginalised.  Their public figures are held up to ridicule.  Yet they make up roughly one in ten of the adult population.  I write, of course, of UKIP supporters. Who are these people?  Where do they come from?  And why, eight months after Leave won the referendum and with the vote being implemented in…

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Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

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With Scottish Independence back on the agenda and Northern Ireland heading for crisis, Keiran Pedley argues that London is far too complacent about the future of the Union. Following last week’s poll by Ipsos Mori showing an apparent spike in support for Scottish Independence and Jeremy Corbyn’s comments this weekend suggesting that he is ‘fine’ with a second referendum, it feels like a good time to unveil the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. Our latest survey focused on UK…

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If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

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Front cover of latest edition of Prospect The polls/leader ratings, by-elections and the locals all pointing in one direction My heading and the front cover of the latest Prospect might appear harsh but how else can you describe Labour’s predicament? It has a leader who is electorally toxic who is kept in place by a party membership that remains broadly supportive. Certainly if there was another leadership election and Corbyn stood it is hard to see how he could be…

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George Galloway could put himself forward for the Manchester Gorton by-election

George Galloway could put himself forward for the Manchester Gorton by-election

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When are the bookies going to take note of this – George Galloway may enter race to become Gorton MP https://t.co/ce0JQ5ADxy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2017 .@LadPolitics 33/1 on Galloway for Gorton is same price you opened on him for 2012 Bradford W by-election. As you'll recall he won — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2017 If he runs that could damage Labour Back in 2012 my best political bet was on George Galloway in the Bradford West…

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Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

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Time to think about some contingency planning The last few years have seen a profusion of long-odds political bets come in. When they have, it’s been because the bookies, the punters or both have misread the electorate, the candidate(s) or the process. I think there’s another outside opportunity now. This week’s Budget cannot in any sense be regarded as priming the Conservatives for a snap election. Presumably, Philip Hammond didn’t anticipate quite the reaction to his NIC proposals that did…

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Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

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CON whistleblowers accuse party of 'huge betrayal' of electorate over GE2015 expenses. Latest from @MichaelLCrick https://t.co/ItYi8ezm5H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2017 There’s lots of talk that Theresa May is planning to create a big batch of new CON peers to deal with the problems her government is having with the upper house. But let us not forget that the formal investigations by the police and the Electoral Commission are still going into the election expenses in key marginals…

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Now betting opens on whether the self employed NI increase will happen

Now betting opens on whether the self employed NI increase will happen

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William Hill have opened a market on the Chancellor’s controversial National Insurance increase for the self-employed – and are offering odds of 6/4 (40% chance of happening) that the new NIC rise WILL be implemented this year – and 1/ 2 that it will NOT be. ‘The adverse reaction to this issue appears to have taken Mr Hammond and Mrs May by surprise and there is speculation that it could be delayed and/or scrapped’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. However,…

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