Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up? One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age. This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below. Table 1:…
Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12). — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose…
Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks looks to follow up on his Dutch success There are few more baffling markets at present than the market on the next French president. It’s a very active market with more than £8 million traded so far, so its oddities can’t be put down to there being few punters. Yet the odds seem very hard to square with the polling. The electoral system is designed to produce a centrist. The voting takes place…
Only one of those in the chart led party to GE victory Corbyn has the worst ratings after 18 months of any LAB leader since @IpsosMORI began asking the question 40 years ago pic.twitter.com/niNq4pqTdE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017 Punters give JC a 39% chance of staying till GE On the betting markets it is a 61% chance that Corbyn will cease to be leader before general election pic.twitter.com/j71k8rdBrd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017
Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment. I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see…
Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:- CON 34+4 LAB 37-9 LD 14+7 UKIP 9-4 GRN 5+1 As we all know London has a very different demographic profile from most of the country and there are very few places indeed which come close to matching it….
This. Every Lab MP should read this & be embarrassed. The Lib Dems do vg rebuttal, quotes and opposition research… pic.twitter.com/Ts9OiXewPY — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 30, 2017 It is as if the red team has given up I have never been a fan of Seumas Milne, the PR chief of Corbyn’s Labour, not because of his politics but that he is so poor at the job. The series of Tweets highlighted by Sam Coates of the Times above…
Breaking: Mike Flynn has offered to be interviewed in probe of Trump team's Russia ties in exchange for immunity https://t.co/8lUo2e92MY — The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 30, 2017 Latest @betdatapolitics chart on Trump exit year betting pic.twitter.com/QWfVWo0KgK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2017 Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings…