The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

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Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment. I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see…

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If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

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Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:- CON 34+4 LAB 37-9 LD 14+7 UKIP 9-4 GRN 5+1 As we all know London has a very different demographic profile from most of the country and there are very few places indeed which come close to matching it….

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Maybe a reason why LAB gets poor media coverage is that the Corbyn-appointed PR team is not up to it

Maybe a reason why LAB gets poor media coverage is that the Corbyn-appointed PR team is not up to it

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This. Every Lab MP should read this & be embarrassed. The Lib Dems do vg rebuttal, quotes and opposition research… pic.twitter.com/Ts9OiXewPY — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 30, 2017 It is as if the red team has given up I have never been a fan of Seumas Milne, the PR chief of Corbyn’s Labour, not because of his politics but that he is so poor at the job. The series of Tweets highlighted by Sam Coates of the Times above…

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Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

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Breaking: Mike Flynn has offered to be interviewed in probe of Trump team's Russia ties in exchange for immunity https://t.co/8lUo2e92MY — The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 30, 2017 Latest @betdatapolitics chart on Trump exit year betting pic.twitter.com/QWfVWo0KgK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2017 Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings…

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Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

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With no by-elections tonight and five weeks until the local elections, I thought it might be an idea to have a look at how the counties (last elected in 2013) might go this time around. Of course, since that night we have had a large number of things happen, the first Conservative majority government since 1996, Milliband standing down and Corbyn getting elected as Labour leader (twice) and the small matter of an EU referendum, therefore I have had a…

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Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave before, simply does not have the power to call one

Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave before, simply does not have the power to call one

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Everybody seems to be ignoring the Fixed Term Parliament Act In the latest PB polling matters podcast we hear that polling has been going on asking the public what they think of the idea of having an early General Election. The responses are interesting but they ignore one pertinent fact: The prime minister, unlike all those before Cameron, does not have the personal power to go to the monarch and seek the dissolution of Parliament. The Fixed Term Parliament Act…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

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After a momentous day in British politics, Keiran and Rob discuss public opinion on Brexit and  Keiran looks at Scotland’s future with Ipsos Mori Scotland Research Director Mark Diffley. Finally, Keiran talks more about the new GfK political polling that has Corbyn’s approval rating among Brits being as weak as Donald Trump’s. More on that polling (including methodology and data tables here). The segment on Scotland dominates this week’s episode and is a particularly wide ranging discussion including new information on…

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I’d feel a lot more comfortable about the Brexit negotiations if Osborne was playing a key role

I’d feel a lot more comfortable about the Brexit negotiations if Osborne was playing a key role

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Beside him May & her team are political pygmies The swift way in which Angela Merkel has undermined Theresa May’s Article 50 invocation plan underlines how critical it is that Team GB has the very best team in the coming two years. That the German Chancellor should so attack May’s Brexit negotiation plan within four hours shows how much she needs a highly skilled political team at her side. A politically astute PM, advised by a politically competent Foreign Secretary,…

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