Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

Comments 0 Comment

The battle for France is a four horse race #presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g — OpinionWay (@opinionway) April 17, 2017 Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen pic.twitter.com/tc1Bes3ocD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2017

The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests Labour could be in trouble in Manchester Gorton

The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests Labour could be in trouble in Manchester Gorton

Comments 0 Comment

At Richmond Park the LD numbers understated their position For all the speculation on Labour’s polling collapse there’s only one thing that really matters – how the party performs in actual elections and the first real test of that is May 4th which includes, of course, the Manchester Gorton by-election where they are defending a majority of 24k. On the face of it Gorton looks impregnable but is it? The Lib Dems have published their latest canvas data for the…

Read More Read More

Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Comments 0 Comment

New @YouGov @thetimes poll Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)https://t.co/xyWwshHpSJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 .@YouGov @thetimes The LD have climbed back to 12%, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like…

Read More Read More

If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have a market up on whether John Bercow will be Speaker until 2018. Ordinarily I’m not in favour of backing 1/6 shots, but given that the much hyped attempt by Tory MP James Dudderidge to topple Speaker Bercow turned out to be a bit Spursy* as only five MPs sign motion of no confidence in John Bercow. From that I can conclude there’s no appetite, let alone a majority, in The Commons to topple John Bercow, so I’d expect…

Read More Read More

Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the Lib Dem fightback with Mark Pack, a campaign strategist and expert on the party. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. The SNP lost a referendum and won a landslide. Could the Lib Dems do something similar by becoming the party of Remain voters? This week’s PB/Polling Matters Opinium poll suggests the party could do well with a relentless focus on stopping Brexit. But it…

Read More Read More

Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

Comments 0 Comment

This week YouGov released some fascinating polling on Theresa May and her popularity. As we can see from the above chart it helps explains why Mrs May has such a colossal lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best Prime Minister and why if Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader at the next general election, the 2020 general election is going to be the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar war. But is her popularity down to Mrs May not…

Read More Read More

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Comments 0 Comment

  Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

Read More Read More

What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

Comments 0 Comment

Who should win what, and what will the misses and bonuses mean? The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations. There are more direct practical consequences of how a party performs against expectations. It’s one thing to lose seats; it’s another to lose more than people expect – or, for that…

Read More Read More