A cartoon ahead of tomorrow’s historic Trump-May meeting in the US and tonight’s Local By-Election Preview

A cartoon ahead of tomorrow’s historic Trump-May meeting in the US and tonight’s Local By-Election Preview

Kilmarnock East and Hurlford on East Ayrshire caused by the death of the sitting Scottish National Party member Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Scottish National Party 944, 1,126 (47%) Labour 1,054, 984 (46%) Conservative 326 (7%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 33,891 (59%) LEAVE 23,942 (41%) on a…

Read More Read More

There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strongly about BREXIT than Leavers

There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strongly about BREXIT than Leavers

BREXIT appears to have the least salience with LAB voters & C2DEs One of those involved in the LDs recent successes observed to me recently they were finding that those opposed to BREXIT have much stronger feelings about the issue than those who aren’t. In many ways this is understandable because they are against the status quo and everything is moving towards the UK leaving the EU. I’ve been pondering over this for some time and have been looking for…

Read More Read More

Just released: Latest PB/Polling Matter podcast with its exclusive Opinium poll findings on BREXIT

Just released: Latest PB/Polling Matter podcast with its exclusive Opinium poll findings on BREXIT

Was the referendum decision right or wrong? On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Labour blogger and political activist Jade Azim and Addin365 CEO and tech entrepreneur Suzy Dean to discuss the recent women’s march, feminism and whether Britain made a mistake in deciding to leave the European Union. This week’s podcast was particularly lively as Suzy and Jade hold very different views on feminism and Brexit. Jade attended the recent march in London and voted Remain whilst Suzy…

Read More Read More

GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

The numbers caused LAB to focus on the DPM when they could have been saving Balls There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead. As can be seen there was a pretty consistent picture that the then DPM,, who still arouses excitement amongst red tribalists, was in trouble…

Read More Read More

LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money based on this so called “poll”

LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money based on this so called “poll”

How the Express is reporting the Stoke central "poll" which wasn't. I'm told it was Facebook survey of 179 people pic.twitter.com/pVlmrSXTu5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 A big move in the betting overnight to UKIP in the Stoke central by-election following reports what was described as a poll. It wasn't. pic.twitter.com/HUHxWp9LL2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 Note that polls can only be described as valid if they aim to have a representative sample of relevant voters….

Read More Read More

Big news in the French Presidential race is that odds-on favourite Fillon could be involved in financial scandal

Big news in the French Presidential race is that odds-on favourite Fillon could be involved in financial scandal

The odds on favourite for French Presidency could be in trouble following news of scandal https://t.co/Xts5nSR4mk pic.twitter.com/RLhLocFuca — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017 Fillon no longer odds-on Francois Fillon no longer odds-favourite for next French President following tonight financial allegations pic.twitter.com/3AVwkyrKar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017 Tweet

LAB might get a Stoke Central boost by NOT having Tristram Hunt as their candidate

LAB might get a Stoke Central boost by NOT having Tristram Hunt as their candidate

Why my money’s NOT going on Paul Nuttall Over the past week there’s been a rush to bet on UKIP in the Stoke Central by-election. This has gathered apace and now the best you can get is about 11/8. This has been driven by the demographics of the seat, the way it went so strongly for LEAVE at the referendum, and the fact that the leader of UKIP has decided to be the candidate. I’m not convinced and think that…

Read More Read More