Why UKIP standing aside in a particular seat might not be as beneficial to the Tories as might appear

Why UKIP standing aside in a particular seat might not be as beneficial to the Tories as might appear

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I am sure that I am not the only PBer who is spending a lot of time at the moment looking up Wikipedia pages on interesting constituencies to try to work out whether a particular bet is good value or not. One seat is Don Valley in Yorkshire where longstanding PBer, Aaron Bell (Tissue Price) is standing for the Conservatives. The figures from last time are above. The big thing we found out at the end of last week was…

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Looking at how undecided voters might vote in this general election, if they do vote.

Looking at how undecided voters might vote in this general election, if they do vote.

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Intro/ YouGov’s @adammcdonnell21 looks at undecided voters and how they are likely to vote https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 1/ There are 3 types of undecided voters:1. On the verge of deciding2. Probably won’t vote3. True undecidedhttps://t.co/V6mVf7ddru — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 2/ Some undecided voters are simply on the verge of deciding – their voting intention looks much like decided voters https://t.co/V6mVf7uOQ4 pic.twitter.com/LxjuLAwRDW — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017 .@AdamMcDonnell21 3/ Some undecided voters…

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Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the greatest ambush since the battle of Lake Trasimene

Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the greatest ambush since the battle of Lake Trasimene

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Sofa chat with Michael Fallon and @EmilyThornberry #marr pic.twitter.com/7Ji3UJz156 — The Andrew Marr Show (@MarrShow) May 14, 2017 Note: This video contains language NSFW from Emily Thornberry that maybe offend more delicate PBers. This morning Sir Michael Fallon managed to achieve something that I thought was very unlikely, he managed to come off worse in a discussion about defence/security with a member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet, The Telegraph report Emily Thornberry has accused Sir Michael Fallon of talking “bollocks”…

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Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th

Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th

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A 5% return in less than four weeks? William Hill have a market up on who will win the popular vote without the Tories. With the SNP standing in only Scotland, then finishing second  in the popular vote is impossible unless turnout somehow craters in the rest of the United Kindgom, so that’s not an option. UKIP winning this bet is very unlikely given they are standing 254 fewer candidates than Labour and in some polls are down to 3%….

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Tonight’s polling and GE2017 betting round-up

Tonight’s polling and GE2017 betting round-up

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The Conservative lead hasdropped by 1 pt for thesecond week in a row, with theparty now 15 pts ahead #ge2017 https://t.co/hS0Sf9Lymu pic.twitter.com/3LqpKbi35E — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) May 13, 2017 New ComRes poll for Indy/S Mirror CON 48%-2 LAB 30%+5 LD 10% -2 UKIP 5%-2 Other GE2017 findings from the poll Latest LAB seats on spreads@SportingIndex 154-160https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … …Spreadex 156-162 – up 2 https://t.co/WTy5ixtSxJ … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2017 Latest CON seats on the spreads@SportingIndex 397-403 seats. Up…

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Even though it is fighting fewer seats and had no MPs the BBC is favouring UKIP over the Greens in its GE2017 specials

Even though it is fighting fewer seats and had no MPs the BBC is favouring UKIP over the Greens in its GE2017 specials

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This morning the BBC announced it’s lineup of General Election specials. They are listed in the table above. Surprisingly UKIP, which has 377 seats is being given an Andrew Neil interview but the Greens, with 468 candidates, are not But unlike May, Corbyn, Farron and Sturgeon there will be no place for either the Greens or Nuttall in the Question Time Leader Specials. Last time it will be recalled that the BBC’s Question Time Leader special was probably the most…

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The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Corbyn quits then or not

The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Corbyn quits then or not

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Yvette Cooper could be the only contender & win without an election The first phase of Labour’s 2017 leadership contest ended on Thursday afternoon when nominations closed for the June 9th General Election. Those like John Rentoul who have analysed the list of candidates for seats that LAB could possibly hold onto say that there will not be enough Corbyn supporting MPs elected in the general election for them to make a nomination according to Labour’s rules. The hard left’s…

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12 seats to watch

12 seats to watch

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The general election result will be made up of the results of 650 individual battles.  Some will be very predictable.  Here are twelve seats that will help to determine how the next Parliament will be comprised. Norwich South As a proud Norfolk boy, I can say that there’s something funny in the water in this constituency.  It had been held by the Lib Dems until 2015, and Clive Lewis made an instant impact on his election.  He is already regularly…

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