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Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats

23/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The crimson tide is coming in The Conservatives are in a wretched state. Everything Theresa May has touched recently has turned to ashes. Jeremy Corbyn in his response to the Queen’s Speech stated that the government has no majority, no mandate and no plan. Jeremy Corbyn is right. Theresa May remains in office for now, a case study in faute de mieux. Everyone, including I suspect Theresa May herself, seems to recognise that the Age of May is concluded. But…

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It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

23/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…

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New YouGov poll has Corbyn ahead of TMay as “best PM”

22/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Numbers like this will add to the pressure on the PM Just two weeks to the minute after we saw the exit poll there’s some sensational new polling from YouGov for the Times. The figures are above. TMay is now trailing Corbyn as best PM. This could provide the ammunition for those in the Tory party who are said to have been pressing for a new leader following TMay’s GE2017 campaign. The Tories don’t like losers is how she is…

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Norman Lamb says he not standing in LD leadership race

22/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Guardian article in which Norman Lamb says he's not standing https://t.co/vlGG9mNsic pic.twitter.com/SlzqZDUr6W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2017 So now it looks like Cable versus Davey The busiest UK political betting market at the moment is on the LD leadership and within the last few minutes the Guardian has published the piece linked to above by the ex-health minister, Norman Lamb. This has come as a shock because Lamb did very well against Farron last time and the…

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Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

22/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of TMay’s appointments that didn’t get much attention in the post GE2017 reshuffle was that of Damian Green as First Secretary of State. He’s effectively her deputy and looks set to be the safe pair of hands that gets put up to be interviewed when things look tricky. This is likely to happen a lot given the lack of a parliamentary majority. He’s been close friend of TMay since they were at Oxford together in the 1970s and they…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotiations, LD leadership and the importance of the youth vote

21/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium. The team discuss this week’s Queen’s Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned. The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori’s data on ‘who voted for who’ at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years. Listen here…

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A fortnight on from the eve of GE2017 and a look back at those final polls

21/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

They all understated LAB Mike Smithson AFollow @MSmithsonPB Tweet