New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures

New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures

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This sounds feasible. LAB did better in seat most threatened with NHS reform & A&E closures https://t.co/wKddsX78qb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 How true is the assertion that the NHS cost TMay her majority? The I report notes that: “The new analysis, by the specialist health consultancy Incisive Health and seen by i, reveals that the average 2017 swing from Conservatives to Labour in 105 marginal seats facing local A&E changes was 3.2 per cent. In seats not…

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Could the CON leadership hopes of David Davis once again be thwarted by an old Etonian?

Could the CON leadership hopes of David Davis once again be thwarted by an old Etonian?

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Chart: BetData Jacob Rees Mogg moves back to 2nd favourite in the betting It seems a long long time ago but during the summer of 2005 David Davis looked all set to replace Michael Howard as party leader. There were other contenders but by far the strongest favourite was Davis who two years earlier had stood aside so that Howard could replace IDS without the need to go through a members’ ballot. Then we all know what happened. Old Etonian…

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CON members’ polling with Davis ahead, plots to get TMay to quit, and how the Great Repeal Bill could be scuppered

CON members’ polling with Davis ahead, plots to get TMay to quit, and how the Great Repeal Bill could be scuppered

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The main political stories this Sunday morning Exclusive: Tory grassroots figures call for Theresa May to consider quitting by Christmas https://t.co/2myHSMcoHT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 CON members polling: David Davis get most support in battle to succeed Theresa Mayhttps://t.co/nKPYfXgQkk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 LD and LAB plot to delay Great Repeal Bill 'could be the thing that does it for Theresa May' https://t.co/os5zgUgJu8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

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Remember Gordon Brown’s LAB and Charles Kennedy’s LDs GE2010 & GE2005 Scottish performances I’ve published the above chart before – the experience of LAB at GE2010 which totally knocked on the head the notion of uniform national swing. We all know that election wasn’t a good one for Gordon Brown’s LAB. They lost power after suffering huge seat losses. There was one part of the UK which bucked the overall trend Scotland. Whereas in England LAB was down more than…

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Can Vince make a Brexit-exit work for the Lib Dems?

Can Vince make a Brexit-exit work for the Lib Dems?

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And can he expand new Lib Dems support beyond Europhiles? In the week when the Brexit talks finally got down to business, the Lib Dems acquired a new leader to head up the fight to – well, that’s the first question: what exactly are the opponents of the government’s Brexit policy (which itself is hardly perfectly defined) themselves advocating? Vince Cable is already seeking to ride more than one horse on Brexit, advocating both that Britain remain within the Single…

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Good night for LAB, bad one for the LDs in this week’s local by-elections

Good night for LAB, bad one for the LDs in this week’s local by-elections

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Alston Moor on Eden (Lib Dem defence) Result: Labour 407 (56%, no candidate last time), Conservative 253 (35% -10% on last time), Independent 57 (8%, no candidate last time), Green Party 13 (2%, no candidate last time) No Liberal Democrat candidate (-55%) Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrat with a majority of 154 (21%) on a notional swing of 33% from Conservative to Labour Billingham North on Stockton on Tees (Lab defence) Result: Labour 719 (40% +5% on last time), Conservative…

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Why there’ll always be a reason why the time’s not ripe to depose Theresa

Why there’ll always be a reason why the time’s not ripe to depose Theresa

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Nick Palmer suggests she could be around for longer than predicted Like many observers, I have the clear impression that most Conservative MPs feel that a change of leadership is needed before the next election. As many have observed, challengers are mainly inhibited by the sense that whoever challenges may not win, and the potential leaders would rather have May than a possibly successful alternative blocking their own chance at the top. At any moment, there could be a deal…

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The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

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How Prof Steve Fisher and Nate Silver provided the pointers On Wednesday, alongside Keiran Pedley and other leading pollsters, I took part in a post GE2017 conference organised by the University of Loughborough at its London campus in the Olympic park. It was a good event and I’m looking forward to some of the serious studies, including the post-election BES analysis that will be published. My contribution started by asserting that the whole polling CON landslide narrative during the campaign…

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