UKIP’s woes continue losing both by-elections they were defending on big swings to LAB

UKIP’s woes continue losing both by-elections they were defending on big swings to LAB

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Meanwhile LAB gains seat from CON, and CON gains one from LAB Loughborough, Shelthorpe on Charnwood (Lab defence) Result: Labour 595 (45% +5% on last time), Conservative 591 (45%, unchanged on last time), Liberal Democrat 93 (7%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (2%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-15%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 4 (0%) on a swing from Con to Lab of 2.5% St. Margaret’s with St. Nicholas…

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As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t serve a full term

As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t serve a full term

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BetData His approval ratings slump following the Obamacare change failure RealClearPolitics The innards of the polls are terrible for the President The big political story in the US over the past few weeks has been the failure of the White House to get the promised changes to ObamaCare through Congress. The proposals would have impacted on millions of Americans who rely on the system that the Democratic party introduced during the Obama Presidency for their health cover. The efforts to…

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Leading constitutional expert and Cameron’s former tutor thinks a second referendum now likely

Leading constitutional expert and Cameron’s former tutor thinks a second referendum now likely

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Four reasons from Vernon Bogdanor for why a second EU referendum is now likely. Hard to disagree. pic.twitter.com/LQqNKfharq — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 3, 2017 Remember Farage called for a 2nd referendum when he thought Remain was winning. https://t.co/qwvpZp6xkG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2017

Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which looked all set to be an annual fixture?

Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which looked all set to be an annual fixture?

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For the first time for years an August without active political betting markets One of the things about running a website about political betting is that we need events on which we can risk our money. Summer is generally a quiet time particularly in August but over the past couple of years we have had the spectacle of a Labour leadership contest both of which were won by Mr Corbyn. In August 2016, as well, we were less than three…

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The BES data that appears to show the impact of the CON manifesto/dementia tax and TMay skipping the debate

The BES data that appears to show the impact of the CON manifesto/dementia tax and TMay skipping the debate

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Day by day percentage age saying something happened that changed their view (BES) From the Manchester University write-up of their latest findings “Towards the end of the questionnaire, we asked our respondents a new question that we asked for the first time in wave 12: ‘has anything happened in the last few days that has changed your view of any of the main political parties?’ Most respondents had clearly made up their minds about the parties well in advance of…

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London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

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 Stodge give us his predictions If a week is a long time in politics and there’s plenty of evidence for that at the moment, perhaps eight months will seem a veritable eternity. Assuming the Earth hasn’t crashed into the Sun or the zombies have taken over or we haven’t had another General Election, May 3rd 2018 will see the next big test of public opinion with the year’s round of local elections and of particular interest will be the London…

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The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s first and last election as leader

The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s first and last election as leader

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How voters learned to like JC and dislike TMay. From BBC commissioned academic study of what happened at GE2017. https://t.co/CdPw6Vn8tz pic.twitter.com/MWwDSSXR34 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2017 The blues can’t be lumbered by such an electoral liability again There’s a new academic study, commissioned by the BBC, that uses the latest BES data to try to track what actuully happened. Given the presidential nature of UK general elections the above chart appears highly significant. The more people saw of…

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