No David Herdson with his usual Saturday morning post this morning but instead this TV feature on PB and many of the issues we’ve been discussing on the site over the past few weeks. This interview, by Rob Double, was recorded yesterday afternoon for Core TV the new online news and politics channel. My views and assessments won’t be unfamiliar to regular PBers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
His YouGov favourability drops a net 13% on June For only the second time since the shock General Election outcome YouGov has carried out a favourability poll on the main parties and their leaders and the contrast with the post election survey is striking. Theresa May is moving up a notch though still in deep negative territory. She was a minus 34 – that’s down to 27%. Corbyn is going in the other direction. He was level pegging in June…
Park on Peterborough (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,713 (50% unchanged on last time), Conservative 1,375 (40% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 176 (5% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 109 (3% +1% on last time), Green Party 83 (2% -2% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 338 (10%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 2.5% St. Mary’s on Forest Heath (Con defence) Result: Conservative 338 (50% +11% on last time), Labour 276…
The Brexit obsession is diverting attention from other big challenges Since Britain voted to leave the EU, little of substance has happened in the decoupling process. Britain has served its Article 50 notice, the EU has established its preferred method of handling the negotiations, to which the British have acceded, and both sides have now published detailed papers on their preferred way of proceeding. The real fight, as Jeremy Corbyn said, starts here. If this is a phoney war,…
Sturgeon’s party has too many vulnerable seats Ever since it became clear that Mrs. May’s June election gamble had failed and she’d lost her majority there’s been lots of speculation that this parliament will not go through to its full term in June 2022. Maybe but there is the obstacle to surmount of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which was part of the coalition deal in 2010. The days when a PM can pop along to the Palace and call…
Threat almost over as far as ministers are concerned We’ve all been entertained this week by the stream of Tweets from the ex-political editor of the Mail and former chief aide to the BrexSec DDavis, James Chapman. It has livened up what had been a quiet August and provided some interesting revelations and attacks on his the man who was his boss until June. But moving to a position where he’s now describing the PM as a “Nazi” suggests he…
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897830203233374208 The big development in the Chapman “Democrats party” move is the above Tweet from the ex-Mail political editor and former chief aids to DDavis. There’s no doubt, as the YouGov polling above shows, that LD voters are much more likely to be pro-Remain than any other party and there would have been a risk for Cable in turning down the Chapman overtures. But the LDs are a well established party where there are still bitter memories of the SDP…
The @jameschappers claims about DD could damage. Just bet at 20/1 that he'll be next Cabinet minister out. https://t.co/vowq0lx88K pic.twitter.com/mrSd5ZqNhh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2017 Good bets are not predictions but an assessment that the chances of a particular outcome are better than what the bookies are offering. Given all the noise round the BrexSec in the Tweet Tsunami from former DD aide James Chapman I reckon that the Ladbrokes 20/1 that he’ll be the next cabinet minister…