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Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 734 Comments

Nate Silver’s 538 Why we shouldn’t rely on the “add a few points to the CON poll shares” this time One of the ongoing themes of this election is that the polls always understate the Tories. Certainly there have been a lot of instances where that has happened as the chart from 538 above illustrates. But it is a lot more subtle than that. Just go through it general election by general election. The polls were almost running level last…

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New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 1 Comment

Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports its finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. With normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1% The figures: CON 41.5% LAB 40.4% LD 6% UKIP 3%. Without rounding the figures are – CON 42% (-5); LAB 40% (+10); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (-2) There’s been a dearth of…

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A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

5/6/2017 Editor Comments 1036 Comments

The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa…

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Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 854 Comments

If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017. The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats…

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GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

5/6/2017 TSE Comments 1093 Comments

Alastair Meeks looks at the betting implications What to make of the polling? Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory? Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory. I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide. This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday. There are other…

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The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

4/6/2017 TSE Comments 1 Comment

Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

4/6/2017 Editor Comments 1 Comment

On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from Britainelects.com to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Ben is part of a team of students that run the Britain Elects twitter account and website that collects polling data and local election results. It’s an invaluable tool now followed by more than 129,000 people on twitter. A real accomplishment and it was a pleasure to have Ben on. Listen to the…

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Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

4/6/2017 TSE Comments 1 Comment

May spokesmn: "Conservative party will not be campaigning nationally today. We will review as day goes on &as more details of attack emerge" — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 4, 2017 Calls for General Election to be suspended after second major terror attack within two weeks #LondonAttack https://t.co/fn6mDPuhqU — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2017 After last night’s appalling attack in London, the Tories and the SNP have suspended their national campaigns, and the other parties are set to follow suit,…

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