Ladbrokes has some new markets up on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations which look interesting but I’m not sure if any of them offer any value. The options are above with 5/4 being offered on no deal being agreed before the Article 50 deadline 18 months on from now. Note the way the bookie is defining what a deal actually is. The 4/1 on Britain still being a member of the EU at the end of 2019 and whether…
Table – Commons Library Why BoJo/Andrea/Phil/David/Amber might be cheering Nicola on The group of constituencies that have seen the most dramatic changes over the past two general elections have been the 59 seats in Scotland. At GE2010 when Labour lost power there were no changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had just 6 seats with the…
And Remain 3 points ahead to hypothetical 2nd EuRef question Survation, the pollsters that was widely, and as it turned out unfairly, criticised in the run-up to GE2017 because it had the smallest CON leads has a new voting poll it. Its relatively old with its fieldwork being carried out in the week of the Tory conference when the blue team were making the headlines for all sorts of reason. The splits are CON 38%, LAB 44%, and LD 7%….
Incumbent PMs of whichever party now much less likely to go early At the end of my session before the House of Lords Committee yesterday the chairman, Lord Lipsey asked for our thoughts on the likely year of the next general election. I took the view that this parliament will continue to run a full term under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act and so June 2022 will be when the country votes next. This is in spite of the fact that…
This isn’t going to be popular with TMay’s supply & confidence partners Well done to Martin Baxter for getting his boundaries projection out so fast. His figures showing what would happen if they’d been in force on June 8th have the Tories just into majority territory but with the DUP suffering in Northern Ireland. It is for this reason perhaps more than any why this plan is unlikely to happen. But the law reducing the size of the Commons from…
Did you Know? • “In Singapore 20% of GDP comes from state owned enterprises, 90% of land is state owned and 85% of housing is public.” • “48 million Americans, in over 2000 cities and districts, get their electricity from the public sector, at a price on average 12% lower than the price charged by private energy companies.” So, it seems, it’s not just Venezuela that inspires those “Marxists” Corbyn and McDonnell in their ambition to use public ownership as…
This morning alongside Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of Ladbrokes I’ll be giving evidence before the Lords Committee that’s investigating political polling particularly in view of what happened at GE17. Our part of the session is due to start at 1145. We’ve been told that the hearing will be shown live on Parliament.tv. I’m a blogger and a Tweeter and have never done anything quite like this before. To say I’m a bag of nerves is an understatement. I found myself waking…
In an excellent article the former YouGov President, Peter Kellner, says there could be signs of buyer’s remorse amongst LEAVE voters particularly amongst the C2DEs. He based this in Prospect on an analysis of the trend to YouGov’s “in hindsight was referendum outcome right or wrong” tracker. Last Friday this showed “wrong” at its highest level with a 5% lead. Kellner, who strips out the don’t knows from the findings, goes on: “..On its own, this latest finding could be…