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The great Alabama polling Gamble. Robo calls v human interviewers

12/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

RCP Above is the latest polling table from Real Clear Politics with surveys on today’s special senate race in Alabama where the Republican candidate is Roy Moore – the man who has been accused of sexual abuse against girls as young as 14. As can be seen the surveys give a totally mixed view of what is likely to happen ranging from Moore 9% ahead to the astonishing Fox News poll that came out yesterday afternoon with a Democrat lead…

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It’s not easy being Green but he’s expected to be cleared on Wednesday

11/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Damian Green will keep his job as First Minister, I am told by three well-placed sources. There should be confirmation on Wednesday https://t.co/WqEN3lAE3z — Robert Peston (@Peston) December 11, 2017 Mrs May’s week looks to keep on getting better. Robert Peston reports I am told by three well-placed sources that Theresa May’s deputy, the First Secretary of State Damian Green, will be informed on Wednesday by the Cabinet Office and his boss the PM that he does not need to…

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Could the first by-election of the 2017 Parliament be at Ashford in Kent?

11/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the problems about running a website dedicated to betting on politics is that we need things on which we can gamble where we’re going to get a result in the not too distant future. The past year has been helped by a couple of unexpected by-elections and of course Mrs May’s decision in April to go to the country for a general election. We have also had some interesting overseas elections including the ones in France, the Netherlands,…

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With the Alabama polls showing the Farage-backed Moore 3.8% ahead the betting makes him an 83% chance

11/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What Alabama's Senior Senator thinks of the man Farage is campaigning for in Tuesday crucial election https://t.co/GiUQ9ZuUwP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2017 The big political event this week is tomorrow’s special election in Alabama to choose the next senator. This is critically important because currently the split in the Senate is 52 Republican to 48 Democrat. If the controversial, Moore who has been accused of having sex with girls as young a 14,loses then that would become 51-49…

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Nick Robinson says the “very widespread expectation in Westminster is that Damian Green will resign in the next few days”

10/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I’m smelling toast. https://t.co/LQg5efbbcU pic.twitter.com/yLRYCbhBmN — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 10, 2017 After her best week as PM, it might be back to the status quo for Mrs May. The Sunday Times are reporting that A male associate of Damian Green has approached the Cabinet Office inquiry into the conduct of the deputy prime minister and spoken in support of the woman who had accused the politician of sexual misconduct. The man, who works in a sensitive position and does not want…

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It is time to salute the brilliance of the visionary that is Diane Abbott

10/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Another reminder not to dismiss seemingly outlandish political predictions A year ago this weekend Diane Abbott made this prediction Labour will be level-pegging with the Conservatives within a year, Diane Abbott has said amid more woeful polling for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. Labour slumped to fourth place in the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election this week, while the Conservatives enjoyed a 17-point lead over the official opposition in a YouGov survey on Friday. The Shadow Home Secretary suggested the party’s recent poor showing…

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For the first time in over a year more people now think the Britain will be better off out of the EU than remaining

9/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Controlling immigration seen as more important than free trade Fieldwork for the poll took place at the end of last week before this week’s events. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?

9/12/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

May looks set for an easier ride The Conservative whips are doing their job well. Evening after evening, the government records consistent majorities in the teens or twenties as it protects its Brexit Bill unamended through the Commons. More innovatively, we saw this morning a flurry of tweets and statements from Tory MPs and ministers lauding Theresa May for her tough diplomacy in delivering a good interim Brexit deal. That helped set the news agenda. To some extent, there was…

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