Newton and St. Leonard’s on Exeter (Lab defence) Result: Con 512 (27% +4% on last time), Lab 1,044 (55% +5% on last time), Lib Dem 179 (9% +2% on last time), UKIP 40 (2% -3% on last time), Green 137 (7% -5% on last time) (No Independence from Europe candidate this time -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 532 (28%) on a swing of 0.5% from Con to Lab Godalming Central and Ockford on Waverley (Con defence) Result: Con…
Bad news for the President from the pollster that got Tuesday most right There’s a new US national poll just out from Monmouth University – the organisation which did best forecasting this week’s Alabama senate election. Its final survey there had it as a tie which was closest to the outcome. Monmouth uses traditional live phone interviews and calls mobiles as landlines. It finds that Trump’s current job rating now stands at 32% approve and 56% disapprove. This marks his…
We all remember the memorable front page of Dacre’s Daily Mail the day after Theresa May called her snap general election in April. For the whole point of building up the number of Tory MPs was to give TMay The Commons numbers so that those who were in disagreement, particularly those within the party, were unable to impede what she was doing. It all seems so easy then. The Tories had a small majority and TMay was expecting that with…
Roy Moore refuses to concede, says "we also know that God is in control" https://t.co/1sJSZehJKH https://t.co/IXqp0xvnhB — CNN (@CNN) December 13, 2017 Those punters who backed the Democrats in the Alabama senate race are probably going to have to wait for their winnings. The losing candidate, Roy Moore, has refused to accept the result and it looks as though there might well be a recount. See his comment to supporters in the CNN clip above. I actually think the bookies…
The chart above is from Betdata.io and shows the dramatic changes in the Betfair price. As was widely predicted this was amazingly tight with the markets changing all the time as more information came in. What was particularly good was a New York Times model that was looking at the demographics of each polling area and impacting on the overall outcome as the information came in. This turned out to be highly predictive and those who followed that for their…
Live Alabama Election Results: Roy Moore and Doug Jones Compete for Senate Seat https://t.co/ydUNRL0EQZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2017
Scots CON leader Ruth Davidson says she would consider standing to be an MP in future. https://t.co/YVUXkiT7Ts — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2017 The first step to her becoming leader? The woman who saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th, Scots CON leader Ruth Davidson, has hinted that becoming a Westminster MP might just be a possibility. For a very long time Davidson has figured highly in the betting and in surveys of Tory members. There’s little doubt that it…
His ambivalence over Brexit impedes LAB on the biggest issue Two Westminster voting intention polls in the past 24 hours have both got the COM in the lead and of course LAB in second place. This is the first time since the general election that consecutive polls have showed this. Labour’s real problem is that it is failing to have a clear distinctive voice that resonates with the vast numbers of Labour voters Who are strongly for remain. Brexit is…