But what a tedious unimaginative market As we move towards the end of the year I plan to run a series of posts looking at the current active betting markets of which there are not a lot. The top one is, inevitably, Donald Trump and which year he will eventually stop being president. As can be seen from the Betdata.io chart punters rate him as a 53% chance of getting to the end of his first term. This is a…
An extraordinary fluke. After recounts Democrat wins Virginia House seat by just ONE vote meaning that its is now Dem 50 – GOP 50 – so the Republicans lose control Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote, creating 50-50 tie in legislature https://t.co/avLNYnlwVt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2017 What has happened in a Virginian election this week is a story that will be remembered and repeated time and time again on election days as party…
The markets remain unmoved We all remember the heady days of June this year when after doing surprisingly well at the general election Corbyn was reported to have a told people at Glastonbury that he would be PM by Christmas. Well we are five days away and that certainly isn’t going to happen. But he’s now reported today saying that he expects to be Prime Minister by Christmas 2018. He said “there will probably be another election in the next…
Good insight by John Curtice. After Brexit, it's no longer about "left" and "right"—it's now social liberals vs social conservatives https://t.co/A7No132kDb via @prospect_uk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2017 How politics is changing There’s a fascinating new analysis of the new Divide in British politics from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in the latest edition of Prospect linked to in the tweet above. This is one of the big conclusions coming out of academic analysis of the referendum…
New YouGov poll ranks the main national papers I can’t recall any similar polling – looking at how the main national papers are perceived in terms of the impact they are having on society. At a time when the nation is so divided by Brexit it is striking that the papers that have been most strident in their backing of Brexit and opposition to those who oppose it should be seen in the negative way set out in these numbers….
Now the talk is of a 2021 exit We all remember the events June 9th the day after the general election as it became apparent that Theresa May’s huge gamble in going to the country earlier to get a big bigger majority was going to end in failure. Instead of increasing the overall number of Conservative MPs which would have helped her during this difficult period getting the Brexit bill through Mrs May found herself in a minority government. David…
Charles on the various tribes of the Tory Party “I support this measure as a measure of reform; but I support it still more as a measure of conservation … the voice of great events is proclaiming to us, “Reform, that you may preserve” Three years before the Tamworth Manifesto, Macaulay’s speech on the Reform Bill prefigures the Conservative party’s core philosophy. Peel’s pledge to ensure “the correction of proved abuses and the redress of real grievances” while resisting unnecessary…
Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, says be cautious The former President of YouGov and leading political commentator, Peter Kellner, has written a comprehensive note about the BMG poll for the Indy which has Remain 10% ahead to a question of how those sampled would vote in a future referendum. In his look at the BMG numbers Kellner notes: “First, they are mainly driven by a seemingly huge shift in people who did not vote in last year’s referendum. Sure, the Remain…