It’s going to be a blue Monday for some cabinet ministers as Mrs May brings in a new order with a reshuffle

It’s going to be a blue Monday for some cabinet ministers as Mrs May brings in a new order with a reshuffle

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https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/949767988772732928 Mrs May has an uncanny ability to go out of her way to step on banana skins Today’s Sunday Times report that Mrs May will reshuffle her cabinet on Monday and the junior ranks on Tuesday. Theresa May will move or sack at least six members of her cabinet in a reshuffle tomorrow designed to refresh her top team. An aide said she wanted to “make sure the government reflects the modern and diverse country” we live in. Boris…

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If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

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And how come that the majority of CON gains were in Remain areas? One of the ongoing narratives over the past year has been that Labour is particularly vulnerable on Brexit because about two-thirds of its constituencies voted leave in the referendum in June 2016. This has continued even though Labour made inroads into the Conservative base on June 8th and only lost 5 seats. What is interesting is looking at the referendum outcomes in the 28 seats that Labour…

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Why TMay should wait to reshuffle her cabinet

Why TMay should wait to reshuffle her cabinet

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There is a good reason why PMs do not reshuffle only 6 months after a GE One of the easier predictions I thought I’d made in a twitter string earlier this week was that Theresa May wouldn’t engage in a voluntary major reshuffle of her cabinet this year. Within two hours of me doing so, the political twittersphere was alive with speculation and supposedly informed comment that just such a reshuffle was imminent – talk that Number Ten did little…

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After Toby Young the focus moves to some of BoJo’s writing about women and gay people

After Toby Young the focus moves to some of BoJo’s writing about women and gay people

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Now BoJo's past articles being looked up with comments about 'hot totty' and 'tank-topped bumboys' https://t.co/83fp35KFxO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2018 Could it hurt his CON leadership chances? Latest CON leadership betting with BoJo in strong 2nd place pic.twitter.com/73bbWkuqDa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Michael Crick is right about appointments to the House of Lords

Michael Crick is right about appointments to the House of Lords

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All this speculation about who might or might not be on the imminent new peers list is silly. Appointments to our legislature – FOR LIFE – ought to be an open process, subject to proper public and media scrutiny — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 5, 2018 If we are continuing with an appointed upper chamber then the process must be transparent With Mrs. May, who lost the CON majority last June, planning to bolster CON representation in the House of…

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Climate change denial is dead – but the fight for green votes is starting

Climate change denial is dead – but the fight for green votes is starting

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Donald Trump and the politics of climate change Donald Trump’s tweet that the snow-blasted US east coast would benefit from some global warming has reignited attention to his climate-change denial. But after a year of his presidency, it’s increasingly clear that, in terms of both public opinion and policy, rejection of climate science is a sideshow. Having a climate-change denier in the White House might seem like a triumph for people who want to stop action against global warming. Trump’s…

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If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to check the precise terms of the bet

If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to check the precise terms of the bet

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What happens, for instance, if the President dies in office? Inevitably the publication of the new book on the Trump White House Fire and Fury, by Michael Wolff has led to an enormous amount interest in betting on whether Mr trump Will survive his first term. This is currently, by a big margin, the busiest current political betting market and I would expect that to continue for some time. I’d also expect a lot of fluctuations as one new development…

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New academic research shows the wide differences between CON members and those who join other parties

New academic research shows the wide differences between CON members and those who join other parties

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Tory membership is older and more male biased Well over half of CON members want hanging restored   CON members want a tough line on immigration post-Brexit A new and comprehensive academic from Queen Mary, University of Lonodn, shows very sharp differences between CON members and those who belong to LAB/LD/SNP. This probably gives us a clearer idea of the make-up and views of CON party members – those who are likely to make the final choice for TMay’s successor…

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