Setting the scene for the May local elections –
Party gains and losses over 40 years Thanks to David Cowling, former head of political research at the BBC, for compiling this table. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Why TMay’s Tories can’t afford to alienate Remain voters
The blues won twice as many Remain seats as Leave ones Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
If LAB shifts a notch on Brexit and backs a CON rebel Commons move TMay could be in trouble
TMay at risk of Commons defeat as LAB shifts on Brexit – dangerous times for the PM who lost the CON majority at GE17https://t.co/R7CfTtJKO3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2018 Crunch time for the embattled PM? Since her humiliating failure to retain the Conservative majority last June Theresa May has lived a charmed life. Who would have predicted on that weekend after the election that she could still be there in charge 9 months later. But she is though…
Even Arron Banks now thinks we are heading for a second referendum
What I find interesting is that some Brexiteers seem to want one https://t.co/rxkbyCiWvx — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) February 22, 2018 That’s been my view for a while , 2nd referendum is what we are heading for https://t.co/80eeEtmVMq — Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) February 22, 2018 But surely there isn’t the time before March 29th 2019?
How opinion on Brexit has moved since the referendum
Prospect The biggest move has been from the 2016 non voters to Remain The above chart, by professor John Curtice, is in the latest edition of Prospect magazine and is designed to show how opinion on Brexit has moved on since the referendum period As can be seen by a whisker more Leave voters than Remain ones have now switched. The biggest move has been amongst those who didn’t vote in 2016. A significant proportion of this group will be…
The one thing that could impede Brexit is a high-level Leave defection
Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months I’m sure that this week’s tour of Britain by the anti Brexit bus, featured above, will bring some comfort to those who believe that leaving the EU is wrong and want to stop it. The Leave bus during the run up to June 23rd 2016 become iconic and clearly it is quite smart to use the same approach and visual identity in this campaign. It is also a reminder…
The juvenile CON attacks on Corbyn have simply reinforced the LAB leader
Can someone pls fetch a bodybag for Steve Baker we have a casualty here pic.twitter.com/mzp4p1IYGy — Alan White (@aljwhite) February 21, 2018 Now legal action The above interview between Andrew Neil and Minister Steve Baker on today’s Daily Politics just about sums up the reason why Conservative have got it so wrong in the attacks on Corbyn. Some of them appear to have built on the revelations in the media with their own view about what this means and now,…
TMay in third place as “best PM” in latest YouGov London poll
Best PM? NOTA 36% Corbyn 31% May 24% Cable 9% London Local elections voting CON 28 LAB 54 LD 11 London GE voting intenton LAB 53% CON 33% LD 8% With the votes in London at the May local elections likely to dominate coverage a new YouGov poll QMUL has bad news for the Conservatives. The numbers in the local elections voting suggests that the Conservatives could be facing the loss of several key Boroughs to LAB and having tough…