This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

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Has the GE17 effect finally petered out? The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion. What is shown here is the percentage of polls that had a Labour leads each month and the percentage of published polls that had the Conservatives ahead. The surveys included are the GB ones and do not include the regional polls such as the Scotland/Wales/London specific ones. The chart…

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Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

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There’s a Betfair market that hasn’t attracted much attention or liquidity on which of May/Corbyn/Cable/Sturgeon will be the first leader out. I think it would have been better to confine it to the PM and LOTO. What’s been striking is how over the past fortnight Mrs. May, who looked a basket case earlier in the month rated as an 80% chance of being first out, is now at 50%. Meanwhile Corbyn, who was at 2% has now edged up to…

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Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets you zoom in and get ward level election results

Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets you zoom in and get ward level election results

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Election anoraks can spend hours with this On PB we always like to hear about innovative means of getting election and other data. Well let me alert you to Lawrence Ware’s grandly titled Universal Ballot Database which enables the user to zoom in, see the mapping of every individual ward n England and Wales and the results. What it does is link the comprehensive Rallings and Thrasher election data base with Google maps. It does use an enormous amount of…

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A message to political leaders – Remember, you are mortal.

A message to political leaders – Remember, you are mortal.

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Curiously, the reasons why some political leaders fall from office is linked to what was once their strengths rather than their weaknesses. Callaghan’s closeness to the unions was seen as one reason why he (rather than the confrontational Heath or strident Castle) would be better able to reach a workable accommodation with them, to the country’s benefit. Having undermined the “In Place of Strife” proposals it was poetic justice that it was the unions’ behaviour which destroyed his (and Labour’s)…

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So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting

So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting

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Punters think there’s a 57% chance that UK will leave EU a year on Thursday The big Brexit development over the weekend have been the revelations about the Leave campaign funding and whether the law was followed. Those pushing this forward are clearly hoping that this could impede the Brexit process and de-legitimise the Referendum outcome. So far punters are not impressed and the Betfair exchange currently rates the chances of UK leaving the EU on March 29th of next…

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The danger for Corbyn is that his vulnerability on antisemitism will haunt him as long as he stays

The danger for Corbyn is that his vulnerability on antisemitism will haunt him as long as he stays

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Extraordinarily given everything else that’s happening that this is the main political news Uptil now during Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party it has really been quite amazing that his less than robust views on antisemitism has never been a big problem for him. That’s changed this weekend following the revelation of his response on Facebook in 2012 to the mural on the wall of a building in East London. Under the heading “Corbyn’s ‘regret’ over an antisemitic mural doesn’t…

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A new furrow. The changing nature of work and what that might mean for the future

A new furrow. The changing nature of work and what that might mean for the future

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Imagine, if you will, that you are a horse. Take that extra step and imagine that you’re a horse capable of reasoning, a Houyhnhnm if you will. As you stand in your stable at the end of the day, imagine you are reflecting on your species’ relationship with humans. It got off to a poor start, with humans seeing you as a food source. Fortunately, humans in general saw greater possibilities in you, learning that you could be a far…

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