Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

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Talk of letters to Graham Brady is probably just talk It has been reported over the weekend that Mrs May could possibly face a challenge over the issue of whether Britain remains in a Customs Union after Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers are absolutely resolute that this should not happen and have been making vibes that should Mrs May concede what seems to be the position of Brussels then she could face a confidence vote. There are warnings about that in order…

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Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

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Maybe not a third Democratic special election victory on the trot? After the sensational Democratic party wins in the recent Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections there’s a lot of focus on Arizona 8th Congressional District where voting takes place next Tuesday. The earlier two elections saw victories for the Democratic Party which were particularly striking because because they were in places Trump had done so well at WH2016. There’s been a bit of excitement on this latest “special” election because…

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Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

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How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…

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Fewer than 3 in 5 of GE2017 LAB voters prefer Corbyn as “next PM”. Maybe the magic of last June is evaporating

Fewer than 3 in 5 of GE2017 LAB voters prefer Corbyn as “next PM”. Maybe the magic of last June is evaporating

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YouGov VI: CON: 43% (+3) LAB: 38% (-2) LD: 8% (-1) There is a new YouGov poll for the Times which has the Tories moving to a 5% lead compared with the level pegging that they had a week ago. The fieldwork took place at the start of the week and before the Windrush issue really caught hold as a big media story. A finding that should concern LAB is that of those who voted for the party on June…

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The Palace is laying the groundwork for a Regency

The Palace is laying the groundwork for a Regency

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The Queen won’t abdicate but she might still retire The beauty of the Commonwealth lies in its pointlessness. Far from being a hindrance, the fact that it doesn’t have a purpose is a feature, not a bug. No-one is being swept along by ‘the Project’ and rarely does anyone expect anything from the two-yearly get-togethers – and that lack of clear agenda, combined with an informal atmosphere with leaders parted from advisors and officials, is what can create the space…

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The Tories hold on against an SNP challenge in Scotland but lose 2 seats to the LDs in England

The Tories hold on against an SNP challenge in Scotland but lose 2 seats to the LDs in England

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Highland on Perth and Kinross (Con defence) Result: Con 1,907 (47% +2% on last time), Lab 239 (6% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 78 (2% -1% on last time), Green 104 (3% -1% on last time), Ind (Taylor) 280 (7%), Ind (Baykal) 12 (0%), SNP 1,466 (36% +1% on last time) Conservative lead over SNP of 441 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from SNP to Con Total Independent vote: 292 (7% -4% on last time) No candidate elected…

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LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

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His handling of the antisemitism issue might be driving this The above the data comes from Opinium the only pollster which does at least a monthly survey of leader approval ratings which means that we have sufficient data points to identify trend. The last numbers were from fieldwork last week before Tuesdays antisemitism debate in the Commons which got a lot of very negative coverage ad helped to deflect a little from Mrs. May’s Windrush problem. What is striking is…

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If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

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Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017? Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead. As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the…

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