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YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

3/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The perception could be highly dangerous as we move forward This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that this line of questioning has been put and the results have to be looked at in the context of all the news that we have had in the past few weeks. I was quite shocked by the figures which are higher than I thought when I just looked at the questions. Full details from the polling can be…

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Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

3/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring. The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his…

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Based on last night Corbyn doesn’t look as though he’s treating LAB’s antisemitism crisis seriously

2/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest from @GuidoFawkes Corbyn Tonight Met Far-Left Group Who Called For Destruction of Israel and Attacked Critics as "Non-Jews" https://t.co/7JBC6uQfgS via — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2018 And David Herdson’s right – one of the attendees has leaked this Corbyn meets with political extremists is hardly news. What is interesting is that someone's leaked the picture here, presumably to damage Corbyn. Question is: is it a member of Jewdas, someone on his own team, or a third party? There…

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Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analysis

2/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I rather like this approach to looking at the White House race because this is a state battle as we saw in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump made it because he picked up several key states by very small margins. Currently you can get Biden at 20/1 for the Presidency and Sanders at 12/1. I’m not tempted at these odds given how long you would have to wait and so much could happen in the…

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The one way for LAB to close down its antisemitism crisis is for Corbyn to go but that is not going to happen

2/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This continues to dominate the headlines The ongoing narrative over anti-semitism within the Labour Party has now gone beyond the point when the former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, said that a bad news story should have been closed down. Tony Blair’s spin doctor used to observe that if one was running more than a week after it started then it was serious. By that judgement this is really starting to look very problematical for Labour and Mr Corbyn and it’s…

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After long periods heading the “next PM” betting punters are moving away from Corbyn

1/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io The last nine months on the TMay successor Betfair market In the aftermath of what was seen as a shock general election result last June the Labour leader, Corbyn, edged up to become favourite in the Theresa May successor betting as PM. Now that has changed and the trend seems to be edging away from him. I’ve long argued that Corbyn as next PM favourite was crazy simply because the chances are that it will be another Conservative who…

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Get ready for the final Brexit battle: the Electoral Commission’s probe on Vote Leave’s spending

31/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Matthew Elliott, Vote Leave's Chief Executive, admitting on Friday that if the Electoral Commission or courts find against them, the result is unsafe. pic.twitter.com/7ECT9v6BlO — Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) March 31, 2018 Sunday TELEGRAPH: “Election watchdogs face calls to resign over Brexit ‘bias’ “ #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/enzSC1hG6d — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) March 31, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet