The last nine months on the TMay successor Betfair market
In the aftermath of what was seen as a shock general election result last June the Labour leader, Corbyn, edged up to become favourite in the Theresa May successor betting as PM. Now that has changed and the trend seems to be edging away from him.
I’ve long argued that Corbyn as next PM favourite was crazy simply because the chances are that it will be another Conservative who takes over from Mrs May if she goes before the next general election.
Currently the favourite position on Betfair is occupied by Jacob Rees-Mogg but since the election both David Davis and Boris Johnson have had their terms heading the betting.
If there had been a CON leader change within a few months of the election then that would have been the best chance for David Davis but now he has slipped a long way behind because it is far from certain whether he would even go for the job.
My guess is that if there is a leadership contest while there is some time to go until the next general election, due in 2022, then Boris would compete with Moggsy for the Leaver slot and perhaps the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd would fly the flag for those who backed Remain.
To my mind the thing that has really impeded Corbyn was his initial response to the Salisbury incident. The most significant event in The Commons since Christmas was the response to the statement by the Prime Minister in early March and it will be recalled that one prominent Labour figure after another stood up in the Commons to distance themselves from the elected leader of the party.
Interestingly the leader ratings to be carried out since Salisbury have seen Corbyn slipping behind Theresa May almost for the first time since the last election.