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For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay in the leader ratings – can he recover?

11/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How YouGov’s party leader favourability tracker has changed since TMay called GE2017 The chart shows the trend in TMay’s net favourability lead over Corbyn since she called the election jut over a year ago. The figures are calculated by taking the PM’s net rating and subtracting Mr. Corbyn’s net figure. As can be seen this really tells the story of British politics over the past year – from a position where Mrs. May was totally dominant to the turnaround at…

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Flotsam and jetsam. Britain’s quiet coastal disaster

10/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

They say that if the outer 50 kilometres of Australia were to fall into the sea, the population of that island continent would drop by 85%. Britain doesn’t have the large hinterland that Australia possesses, but if Britain were to be attacked by a giant cookie cutter from space, it’s not at all clear that some of the places crimped off would get any less attention than before. The whole idea of going to the seaside is a relatively new…

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Why we should look closely at the precise wording of second referendum polling questions

10/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Same poll split sample producing very different responses VERSION ONE:Once the negotiations between Britain and the European Union over a Brexit deal have been completed, do you think there should or should not be a public vote on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all? VERSION TWO Once the negotiations between Britain and the European Union over a Brexit deal have been completed, do you think the public should or should not have a final…

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It is a mistake to look at the next election though the prism of the last one

9/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

That was why GE2017 was seen as such a shock Given what happened on June 8th last year you would have thought people would have worked out by now is that you cannot look at the next election by thinking back to the last one and applying the same sort of judgements relating to what happened. So currently you will find from many committed Corbyn supporters saying that their man is going to sail through, whatever the polls might be…

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Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on voting intention

9/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If we’d done that last June the outcome would have been much less of a shock The publication of two sets of leader ratings by Deltapoll and YouGov over the weekend has put a lot of attention on these regular trackers which the records suggest are a better guide to what will happen in elections than voting intention polls. We know that the voting numbers with one exception in GE2017 joined GE2015 and GE1992 in being some way out and…

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How Labour need to stop worrying and learn to love the bomb

9/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: The MOD twitter feed Despite its relative lack of salience as a motivating issue for voters there is an interesting discussion to be had on how a Corbynite Labour party can use defence policy to attack the Conservatives in an area of perceived strength. The last few decades of British defence policy have been characterised by constant out-of-area and expeditionary deployments that have been hindered by massive personnel reductions and scandalously poor procurement and program management. At some…

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Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

8/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Further proof that Johnson’s going to pull out of another Tory leadership contest? I’m a fan of approval ratings as they are a very good pointers to general elections, as Mrs May’s alarming collapse in the closing stages of the 2017 general election confirmed. So this morning’s debut poll by DeltaPoll caught my eye for this very reason. For many Tories Boris Johnson is the man to win the Tories a majority in 2022 against Corbyn but if his ratings…

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So who wants to be the British Emmanuel Macron? There’s £50 million worth of support waiting for you

8/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Tomorrow’s Observer… In development for over a year. Former Tory and Labour donors involved. Plans for radical policies from left and right. But… will this plan for a #newparty get anywhere? ????? pic.twitter.com/A8qs4L1cGR — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) April 7, 2018 I’m not sure £50 million is enough to overturn the inbuilt bias that FPTP gives the Tories and Labour nor the rules on election spending. Since the 23rd of June 2016 we regularly get stories about a new (centrist) party…

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