If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

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Sean Fear rates a Barnet CON hold a 50-50 chance I’ve just had a bet at 23/10 with Ladbrokes that the Conservatives will hold on to Barnet in the local elections on May 3rd. My reason is an assessment by long standing PB contributor, Sean Fear, that this is a 50-50 chance and in such cases the betting option that’s longer than evens is the value bet. Sean has long experience of London elections and I for one take notice…

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The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

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The Windrush scandal is Theresa May’s creation, borne of an innate inability to equate ‘immigrant’ with ‘person’. It’s a hefty accusation, I know, but it makes sense of almost everything she’s done since 2010. Lying about a cat; Go Home vans; subsuming Ukip; EU citizens as cards. — James O'Brien (@mrjamesob) April 17, 2018 The arbitrary imprisonment of Paulette Wilson, aged 61, who lived lawfully in UK for 50 years is chilling. It could never happen in UK. That it…

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MEMO to Mr Corbyn: Most GE2017 LAB voters think the Russian Government is a force for evil in the world

MEMO to Mr Corbyn: Most GE2017 LAB voters think the Russian Government is a force for evil in the world

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Like Brexit another area where Team Corbyn appears out of line with GE17 LAB voters? We have seen since the general election that there is an increasing divide between the views of team Corbyn and those who voted for the party at the last general election on Brexit. Overwhelmingly LAB GE2017 voters believe that the decision to leave the EU was wrong which appears out of line with the policies being pursued by the opposition front bench under Mr Corbyn….

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The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

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With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair. The whole atmosphere has changed since the surprise raid on Cohen’s offices last week and there’s a lot of speculation about what might have been found. It is reported that Stormy Daniels will be at the hearing. It is also being said that the President is much…

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TMay’s decision to back the Syria raid without Commons approval was in the face of public opinion

TMay’s decision to back the Syria raid without Commons approval was in the face of public opinion

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Will there be a price to be paid? Was TMay right to order strikes on Syria without MPs backing? SurvationYes 30%No 54%DK 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2018 Do you support the UK bombing of Syria? SurvationYes 36%No 40%DK 24% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2018 Why did Corbyn oppose Syria raids?(Survation) Genuine belief raids were wrong 40%Opportunist bid to damage TMay 40% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2018 The Russian Government has become a force…

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There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

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Chart from polling conducted by YouGov for the Campaign against Antisemitism Older voters are more likely to endorse at least one anti-semitic statement, and remember older voters are more likely turn out to vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that Labour will take a long term hit in the polls because of the recent coverage of their anti-semitism issues but recently we’ve seen conventional wisdom proven to be very wrong, this might be another example. Before anyone accuses me saying older voters,…

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Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

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Every year, the politically engaged pore over the local elections, seeking to make deductions about what they mean for national politics. They do so undeterred by the fact that the relationship between local elections and national elections is not all that strong and they disregard the fact that local elections have an independent purpose from acting as a proxy national opinion poll. It’s usually a largely fruitless exercise that serves only to keep wonks occupied until Eurovision hits our screens….

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Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who would make the best PM

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Corbyn, as almost ever, trails behind This polling, from the latest YouGov, rather sums up British politics at the moment. When respondents were asked who would make the best prime minister 37% said Mrs May which is exactly the same number who said they didn’t know Neither of the main party leaders is able to show widespread support. On the party splits just 70% of current Labour voters opted for Mr Corbyn. Mrs May gets 90% of Tory ones. Of…

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