LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

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Corbyn’s poor leader ratings highlight the weakness Ever since general election seat projections like the one from Sky above have appeared LAB supporters and Corbyn enthusiasts have been saying that last Thursday the party won LE2018 and if it had been had a general election then Corbyn would be the one being called to the Palace. This is based on the unfounded and somewhat arrogant assumption by LAB that all the SNP, LD, PC and GRN MPs would simply line…

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Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

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It appears some people need educating on what a good electoral performance is & how it compares to past results, well I'm here to help. Especially with tomorrow being the third anniversary of Cameron winning a majority. The last time the parties won a majority 1/3 pic.twitter.com/QwmfiXvqJP — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 The last time the parties won a working majority. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/9McVuZLsXe — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 Assuming the next general election is in 2022 by then…

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Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets

Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets

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I like these type of markets where you can bet on whether or not X will be in their current job on a certain date. William Hill are offering such markets on Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, and John Bercow. Because of Brexit and Mrs May’s plans for our customs arrangement with the EU which could see her toppled by the ERG wing of the party makes me loathe to back any options for May, Johnson, and Hunt staying…

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If you want to compare main party/leader performances from past elections use this chart based on the CON + LAB aggregate

If you want to compare main party/leader performances from past elections use this chart based on the CON + LAB aggregate

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No Owen, Corbyn’s GE2017 performance didn’t match Blair’s at GE2001 Last night in a discussion on LE2018 on Newsnight the Oxford-educated Corbyn cheerleader, Owen Jones, sought to suggest that his man’s performance at the 2017 General Election was comparable with what Tony Blair achieved in 2001. He did it by taking the national percentage vote shares rather than looking at seat total or size of majority or some other measure. Certainly LAB got 40.3% at GE2017 compared with Blair’s 40.7%…

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Has Labour lost its momentum?

Has Labour lost its momentum?

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Are we past Peak Corbyn or was LE2018 just a bump in the road? You can tell a lot about how well a party has done by where a leader goes to celebrate their election victories. Theresa May (no doubt unwittingly) re-emphasised her caution-first nature by travelling all the way to Wandsworth: a council the Tories have held since 1978. She could have gone to Nuneaton, where the Tories stripped Labour of a sizable majority (unlike Wandsworth, where it was…

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With just about all the LE2018 results now in the clear winners were the LDs gaining most seats and councils

With just about all the LE2018 results now in the clear winners were the LDs gaining most seats and councils

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BBC News One of the things that generally happens on local election nights is that the media narrative is determined by what happens in the first few hours of results. So the big coverage was of Lab’s failure to take its key targets in London and of course the antisemitism element of the result from Barnet. But now that we’ve got just about all the results in we seen clearly that the big winners were the Lib Dems who have…

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Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations

Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations

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How losing seats can be presented as a victory I have just got off the phone from someone who was working for the Conservative campaign yesterday in a key ward in Wandsworth which was eventually held by the party by margin of 36 votes. One of his observations was that Labour had dozens of activists on the ground with apparently very little to do. He said that they seemed to be without direction and they would go mob handed from…

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