Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

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Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…

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November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

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The polling average narrows The Betfair betting exchange get tighter For the past year or so many people have been predicting that the US midterms, the elections that take place exactly 2 years after a presidential election, would not be very good for Mr Trump. In particular the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the Republicans, looked set to flip and that would frustrate enormously legislative objectives of the presidency. The Senate comma though, is a different matter….

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Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

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NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 23 May 2018 So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost…

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By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

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There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above. As can be seen there have been much bigger movements in constituencies which voted Remain than those which voted Leave. In the former, both in CON held seats seats, the LDs did particularly well picking up one gain with the Tory vote sharply down. What we haven’t had is a…

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Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

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Anyone for a couple of Lewisham East match bets? #LewishamEastByElection UKIP 1/2 vs For Britain 6/4Lib Dems 4/7 vs Tories 13/10 pic.twitter.com/eVz4ICdRIz — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) May 22, 2018 The by-election in Lewisham East is attracting a lot of attention on twitter for Labour’s woes in candidate selection, and also some unfortunate tweets by the CLP chair dug up by Owen Jones. How much attention will the average voter there pay to this ? Very little is the runaway favourite…

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A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

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Given that the outgoing MP, Heidi Alexander, secured 69% of the vote at GE2017 it has been very hard to predict anything other than a Labour hold. That was why, in the eyes of many, the party’s selection battle was the real fight. That was completed on Saturday when the local party chose Lewisham’s, deputy mayor ahead of the Momentum backed candidate as well as the one supported by Unite – an outcome that’s been seen as a bit of…

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On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

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Betdata.io A vote this year is rated as just an 11% chance At the weekend we saw reports in the media about the possibility of the huge divide in the Conservative over Brexit being of such a magnitude that an early, 2018, general election was the only way of ending it. I thought the Sunday Times report was over-egged simply because Mrs. May was so scarred by her failure to retain the Tory majority last year that there were no…

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Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

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Ken Livingstone has announced that he is resigning from the Labour Party saying the issues around his suspension for alleged anti-Semitism had become a "distraction" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Former London mayor Ken Livingstone says he does not accept the allegation that he has brought the Labour Party into disrepute or that he is "in any way guilty of anti-Semitism" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Labour MP John Mann has told Sky News…

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