From a 3.7% chance to 9%+ in just 25 days Following a glowing write-up by Fraser Nelson in The Telegraph this morning there’s been a lot of been a fair bit of betting interest in the Home Secretary for next Conservative leader. This is from the Nelson piece in which he looks at how Javid is handling his new job: “His first change – rhetorical style – is relatively easy. The bigger test will be if he can win the…
Thanks to Liverpool getting through to the Champion’s league final and the ongoing series of strikes on SNCF – the French railway system we have a problem this weekend running PB. TSE is off to Kiev to support his beloved Liverpool while I am having to bring my holiday forward by two days so our train trip down to Andalusia won’t be disrupted by the strikes. The result is there is no one “on duty” over the weekend. So we…
The latest Scotland only polls have LAB down in third place The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015. Five years earlier at GE2010 when Labour lost power there were, extraordinarily, no seat changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had…
I have been reminded that it is now more than a year a year since we had a PB gathering. In recent years these have taken place in pubs in central London where Fat Steve has arranged for a specific area to be allocated to us. He has done a sterling job making the arrangements but alas he is now working overseas. Has anybody got any ideas for a future event and is there someone who is based in London…
Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…
The polling average narrows The Betfair betting exchange get tighter For the past year or so many people have been predicting that the US midterms, the elections that take place exactly 2 years after a presidential election, would not be very good for Mr Trump. In particular the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the Republicans, looked set to flip and that would frustrate enormously legislative objectives of the presidency. The Senate comma though, is a different matter….
NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 23 May 2018 So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost…
There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above. As can be seen there have been much bigger movements in constituencies which voted Remain than those which voted Leave. In the former, both in CON held seats seats, the LDs did particularly well picking up one gain with the Tory vote sharply down. What we haven’t had is a…