Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

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Betdata.io The big unknown now is the Leave campaign funding investigation As can be seen from the chart the Brexit “will it happen on time” market has seen a fair bit of turbulence since the start of the year with YES now a 67% chance. The recent bumps have been cause by the progress of the exit bill through both houses of parliament. At the moment the one thing that we know about that could cause movement is the Electoral…

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Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

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Chart – Survation By 48% to 25% those polled want a referendum on the final deal Tomorrow’s the second anniversary of the Brexit referendum and expect a number of polls seeking to gauge opinion now. First out is Survation for Good Morning Britain which finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March with Survation. Leave 47% (-2); Remain 53% (+2) Significant percentages (36%-43%) of respondents have a…

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Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU was right

Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU was right

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You’ve got to marvel at Team Corbyn’s ambivalence Just 19% of Labour voters in today’s YouGov poll think that the decision to leave the EU was right with 72% saying wrong. I think this is the widest split there’s been. Yet in spite of being out of line with party supporters the leadership has pursued an approach to Brexit that is very different. The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue. Voters in most of the LAB…

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Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

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https://youtu.be/pPyzZjeH1d4 Could this help turn the tide? For nearly a year the betting markets have made a Democratic party House win in November’s midterm the favourite. These, of course, are the key elections that come up half way through a presidential term when the whole of the House is up for election as well as about a third of the Senate. The Democrats margin has narrowed very sharply on Betfair but the blues are still just ahead. From the betting…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: NHS funding, ‘Brexit dividends’ and UK drugs policy

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: NHS funding, ‘Brexit dividends’ and UK drugs policy

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at public opinion on the NHS as it hits 70 years old in light of the government’s promise to pump in extra cash. Keiran takes us through what the public think of the policy and whether they would accept tax rises to pay for it alongside data on how perceptions of the quality of care provided by the NHS have changed over time. Later in the…

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Kirsty Wark heads the betting for the next QuestionTime host

Kirsty Wark heads the betting for the next QuestionTime host

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Several bookies have now got odds up who is going to succeed David Dimbleby as the host of the long running BBC series Question Time. Most of them showing a similar assessment to Ladbrokes which features in the panel above. My understanding is that the program is made by an independent production house which clearly will have a view about who should take over from Dimbleby. So this is not going to be a sole BBC decision. The Producers will…

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Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s premiership

Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s premiership

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Can the rebels be curtailed yet again? After the Brexit bill defeat for the government on the in the Lords on Monday the issue is now back in the commons and there’ll be a big vote on whether to accept what the Lord’s decided. The stakes are very high indeed because if the measure goes through it will have a huge impact on the way that ongoing negotiations on the deal take place. Essentially if it passes Mrs Mays hands…

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Trump’s hardline policy on immigrant children has become a testing time for the White House

Trump’s hardline policy on immigrant children has become a testing time for the White House

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Maintaining Republican party support looks challenging The polling is not good for the President. According to a CNN poll two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the practice of taking undocumented immigrant children from their families and putting them in government facilities on US borders, Only 28% approve. Among Republican voters 54% support the policy but 34% don’t. This all comes in the run-up to November’s midterm elections. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet