My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

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Watch out for John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair. One of the things about super long-shots is that you generally don’t know when you place your bet whether your man/woman will actually make a bid. So today’s strong indication that he is considering putting his hat into the ring is a big step forward. I’d first noticed Hickenlooper a…

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A week is a long time in politics

A week is a long time in politics

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Corporeal wonders just what we’ve done to deserve our current political situation. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Then after that, and if we are being punished for some serious crimes committed in a previous life, it descends into whatever this is. I’ve been trying to crowbar an article around a Groundhog day analogy, since every week recently has seemed so depressingly familiar. Theresa May has established herself (for lack of a worse word) as a career…

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The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain

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Away from Brexit for moment with some polling on what are seen as Britain’s desirable locations to live. With Channel 4 going through a process of choosing a location outside London for a new creative hub YouGov have been carrying out the polling which no doubt will prove controversial. On my Twitter feed it was observed that most of the top choices all voted remain at the referendum. You have to go down to 9th place, Nottingham to find a…

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At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll Why LAB should worry less about supporters who backed leave On general election day last year the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a huge 14,000 sample poll to find out amongst other things why people had voted as they did and to tryto understand better what had happened. The survey was similar to US exit polls where much more than voting data is collected. The BBC/Sky/ITV UK exit poll is solely about…

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Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

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Those polled responded along strong partisan lines Anybody expecting that President Trump’s widely criticised approach at the Helsinki summit with Putin would hurt him amongst his base is going to be disappointed. The first polls are now out and they show the same picture – very solid support from Republican Party voters for the Presidents handling of Russian leader, Putin Axios/SurveyMonkey has 79% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling. This compares with 91% of Democrats and 62% of independents who…

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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

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Betdata.io I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row. The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read. One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT…

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BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

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Betdata.io With so much up in the air in British politics at the moment there’s been a lot of movement in the next CON leader betting. It is beginning to look as though Theresa May will survive until the autumn at least and maybe beyond and the question is who will actually replace her? Yesterday, of course, the ex Foreign Secretary secured a lot of coverage for his resignation address to MPs. Although it was nothing like the dramatic event…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s…

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