PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

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The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely. In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear? (And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)…

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The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

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RCP Judging by the US media there’s no doubt that Helsinki was bad for Trump. But was it? Will he still retain the support of his base? What will be the electoral impact of yesterday. US polling uses leader ratings much more widely than the experience in the UK and the first post meeting ratings numbers are eagerly awaited. As can be seen from the chart he has been enjoying something of a recovery. Will that be sustained or will…

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Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

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If its like the IDS ousting the first signs will be on Betfair Since the Conservative Party introduced its new leadership roles while William Hague was in charge the procedure for getting rid of the incumbent has only been used once. That was, of course, the ousting of Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003. What was intriguing about that dismissal was that the events behind closed doors in Westminster were largely being reflected on Betfair. Like now there were two…

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At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

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The best post-Helsinki bets? Judging by the reaction in the US overnight Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin has gone down like a like a bowl of cold sick most strikingly within his own party. He’s been damaged. There’s no point in me repeating here the wide coverage that we’ve seen but question for punters, surely, is what are the best Trump bets. There are, as we know, many markets. Will he complete a full first term? (Betfair 74%) What…

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Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

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Given the initial US media reaction, even that from Fox News, the President isn’t getting good coverage for his historic meeting with Putin. This was from former Republican cabdidate and current Senator, John McCain: “Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate. But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was…

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TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

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May rejects claim accepting Tory Brexiter amendments means 'Chequers deal now dead' https://t.co/tzNxFys2Hv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2018 Moggsy now appears to running the Brexit show Totally agree with what @DavidHerdson has written here about Mrs May accepting the ERG amendments. pic.twitter.com/FGexPLIib6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 16, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

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Wikipedia Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1 The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017. Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an…

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The hold that Putin holds over Trump could be revealing that the Russians did try to fix WH2016

The hold that Putin holds over Trump could be revealing that the Russians did try to fix WH2016

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Straight from Russia’s undoubted success in staging the World Cup the biggest news today will be the secret meeting in Helsinki between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Normally when leaders meet they have aides with them but not so this meeting and this has set up a whole series of rumours and speculation. There are all sorts of theories around about the hold that the Russian president has over the occupant of the White House and, of course, it has…

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