History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

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On all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid term the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state. On three occasions the incumbent Foreign Secretary has taken over, Sir Anthony Eden succeeding Sir Winston Churchill in 1955, Alec Douglas-Home succeeding Harold MacMillan in 1963, and James Callaghan succeeding Harold Wilson in 1976. On three occasions the incumbent Chancellor of the Exchequer has taken over, in 1957 Harold MacMillan succeeding…

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Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

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Picture: ConHome next Tory leader polling from December 2015 Following the recent ConHome polling Mike noted that Boris Johnson had once again become the favourite to be Theresa May’s successor but I’m going to explain why I’m continuing on laying Boris as next Tory leader/PM. 1) Polls are not immutable. Look at the picture atop this thread, back in December 2015 George Osborne had led the ConHome poll for a fifth successive month, polls are not static, they can rapidly…

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Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond

Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond

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The great survivor hangs on My most significant betting loss since the last election has been on Theresa May failing to survive 2017. This was placed in the aftermath of her disastrous conference speech last October which just seemed to sum up her whole predicament – trying to carry on after losing the party its majority. We all recall the early hours of the morning of June 9th 2017 when the former Chancellor, George Osborne sacked pronounced on television that…

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Sean Fear looks back to the Jewish boys during his school-days and wonders just what has happened to LABOUR

Sean Fear looks back to the Jewish boys during his school-days and wonders just what has happened to LABOUR

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"Today, other than another article bemoaning a situation of the Party’s own making, nothing has changed. There is no trust left. We find ourselves asking once again for action, not words" pic.twitter.com/jmNDX9Xvqa — Jewish Labour Movement (@JewishLabour) August 3, 2018 The row that just won’t go away Between the ages of 11 and 18, I went to University College School in Hampstead. UCS was founded by Jeremy Bentham in the early nineteenth century. Jeremy Bentham is probably most famous today…

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If the senior Tory quoted here is right TMay will be out this autumn

If the senior Tory quoted here is right TMay will be out this autumn

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A senior Tory MP tells me chances of May being ousted this autumn are “100%” such is the rage at her handling of Brexit. Is she tonight pleading with Macron to give her something — anything — otherwise he will be dealing with Johnson or Gove? https://t.co/4o6beG4Id4 — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) August 3, 2018 On Betfair it’s a 38% chance that she’ll be out this year I’ll believe it when I see it. Tory MPs, surely, will only back a…

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BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

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Only problem is TMay is hanging on with opponents not having the bottle to try to oust her In a betting move that looks as though it was driven by this week’s ConHome members’ survey which has BoJo on top the ex-mayor and ex-ForeignSec, is now favourite on Betfair to be the next Prime Minister.  He replaces Mr. Corbyn who is having many troubles in his own party over the approach of his team to antisemitism. In percentage terms being…

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The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?

The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?

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https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1022595808003334144 Sweden has a general election on 9 September 2018.  You might have picked up on it because the newspapers have been drawing attention to the prospects of the Sweden Democrats as they are apparently rising in the polls.  For those that aren’t familiar with them, the Sweden Democrats are the descendant of the fascist movement but now looks like a fairly standard nationalist anti-immigration party.  Could such a party top the polls in a country famed for its social…

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That John McDonnell feels that he has to post this says a lot about the state of Labour

That John McDonnell feels that he has to post this says a lot about the state of Labour

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#WeAreCorbyn I am proud to stand in absolute solidarity with my comrade and friend, Jeremy Corbyn, who has stood with me and so many others for decades in campaigns for peace, justice and against all forms of oppression and discrimination. — John McDonnell (@johnmcdonnellMP) August 2, 2018