Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

Comments 0 Comment

A week before GE17 and TMay’s best PM dominance is crumbling TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 4 days before GE17: few pay attention to Ipsos’s satisfaction numbers Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 PB regulars will know that…

Read More Read More

Labour – A Party of Government?

Labour – A Party of Government?

Comments 0 Comment

Assume that in the next 4 years Britain elects Labour led by Corbyn. What governing challenges might it face? We do not know what the world will be like in 2022. But conditions are unlikely to be propitious. With such caveats in mind, here goes. Brexit  Surely we will have exited by then and agreed our trading relationship with the EU? Dream on. The former maybe. The latter unlikely. Even if the broad outlines are visible, there will remain a…

Read More Read More

It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

Comments 0 Comment

For it to work there has to be a vacancy and there isn’t one While LAB has continued its self destructive row on antisemitism the focus has been off the Tories in the past couple of weeks even though the blues are as split as ever over Brexit. Even so TMay might be pleased that all the latest ratings her net figures have her moving up while Corbyn has slipped sharply. Opinium, Deltapoll and YouGov now have her ahead of…

Read More Read More

Campaign-funded YouGov poll points to the LDs getting to within 2 points of LAB if the red team backs Brexit

Campaign-funded YouGov poll points to the LDs getting to within 2 points of LAB if the red team backs Brexit

Comments 0 Comment

New YouGov poll commissioned by an anti-Brexit campaign group points to big electoral price that LAB would pay if continues to back Brexithttps://t.co/2FUSmdTxSr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 19, 2018 But how much can we read into such hypothetical polling? This is from the Guardian report: “A YouGov poll of more than 4,900 people, released to the Guardian on Sunday, put the Conservatives ahead of Labour by four points in a snap election should the latter adopt an anti-Brexit position,…

Read More Read More

Good Queen Tess

Good Queen Tess

Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: Pulpstar The country is divided into two fiercely-opposed camps. One group wants to free the country completely from European control, completing a process begun under a previous leader, whereas the other group wants to reverse the break from Europe altogether. In parliament the latter group has the majority, but the real levers of power are held – somewhat precariously – by a woman who, nominally at least, favours the break. But does she? There is suspicion amongst the…

Read More Read More

A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

Comments 0 Comment

Video: Footage of Jeremy Corbyn, in yellow, taking on his critics in the Parliamentary Labour Party. NSFW As long as Labour members see Corbyn as the Messiah & not a very naughty boy there won’t be a Labour leadership contest. Paddy Power’s market on whether there’ll be a Labour leadership contest in 2018 seems like an absolute slam dunk for backers of the 1/7 for the following reasons. Whilst Corbyn appears to have better relationships with terrorists and anti Semites…

Read More Read More

Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

Comments 0 Comment

It is a regular feature of horror films that, just when you think it has been destroyed, the monster lurches back into life one last time to terrorise the valiant hero.  Right now the corpse of UKIP is lying slouched in the corner but with its poll ratings a quantum level higher than they were two months ago its body is twitching as if an electrical stimulus is being pumped through it.  Can it return from the dead? Following the…

Read More Read More

Labour’s antisemitism problem will always bedevil Corbyn as long as Palestine remains a cause célèbre

Labour’s antisemitism problem will always bedevil Corbyn as long as Palestine remains a cause célèbre

Comments 0 Comment

At the heart of modern anti-Zionism is the traditional envy of Jewish success If Jeremy Corbyn had been politically active seventy years ago, there’s no doubt that he would have been a vocal champion of Zionism. Few things animate him like support for a people he regards as oppressed, who are fighting against a state like Britain or the US. If that struggle involves terrorism, no big deal for him. The creation of a Jewish Israel out of Britain’s League…

Read More Read More