politicalbetting.com – Page 787 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

No surrender to the IHRA

5/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Labour MP John Mann: "The eight should announce themselves."https://t.co/TLPEhQJJPw — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) September 5, 2018 When I look at the way Labour are handling the who anti-Semitism story I end up sounding like the late great Fred Trueman, ‘I don’t know what’s going off out there’. After the events yesterday I would have drawn the line under the whole affair and moved on to targeting the many areas the government are screwing up. But those eight MPs coupled with…

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Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

5/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The above is screen grab from a ‘poll’ that The Press and Journal are conducting online about Scottish Independence. Any poll that involves self selection, has no weightings, allows multiple voting, and doesn’t publish data tables can be safely ignored. Because as in the tweet below these polls can be ‘gamed’ to favour one side making the findings even more unreliable. Why you should ignore voodoo polls. https://t.co/hcC0fyyr7F. Picture Via @CarlosD22428844. pic.twitter.com/f5QGvRakBV — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2018 As an…

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The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

5/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Our #issuesindex has been running since 1974 – we rarely add new items unless there’s a clear change – this month in the top ten for the first time – lack of faith in government/politicians…(spontaneously mentioned by respondents). Data out tomorrow — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 29, 2018 We also have a brand new entrant for the top ten – 12% say "lack of faith in govt/politics" is a big problem. This is our first new code since 2014 and…

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Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Corbyn move from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week

4/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes: Chris Williamson is now 33/1 to become the next Labour leader, in from 100/1 last week pic.twitter.com/wp1El4c8vn — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2018 Why I’m not jumping aboard on this betting bandwagon The major betting news today is the odds of Derby North MP Chris Williamson tumbling from 100/1 last week to 33/1 today. My primary reason for not backing Williamson is that if someone from the Corbynite wing of the party succeeds they will need explicit public…

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May v Corbyn: Who’ll go first?

4/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power’s market on who will cease to be leader first, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn is an intriguing one. I can understand why Mrs May is the overwhelming favourite but I wonder if the value might be with Jeremy Corbyn for the following reasons. I maybe wrong on this but I feel we’ve reached a tipping point with Jeremy Corbyn these last few weeks following those comments about British Zionists, in the type of language the far right often…

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Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

3/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

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The Dangers of Polite Demagogues

3/9/2018 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The cartoonist known as Pont is perhaps best remembered (if at all) for his Punch series on the English character. The cartoons depict a certain type of pre-war English upper middle class life (dressing for dinner, hunting, country weekends, clubland, patient, stoic enjoyment of outdoor pursuits, bewilderment at Abroad and the need to Keep up Standards, often to the point of absurdity) laced with endearing eccentricity. It is a life which has largely disappeared, save for those (often foreigners) wealthy enough…

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Cat meet pigeons

2/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sunday TIMES: “May and Corbyn face double coup” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/qD7n75C0Mj — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) September 1, 2018 The best advice from an MP going into this autumn? “Buckle up.” The @ObserverUK Big read on the plotting, chaos and intrigue that lies ahead…https://t.co/FoTxZS9vAs pic.twitter.com/3bqD6p5vRZ — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) September 2, 2018 Those hoping for a quiet Autumn on the politics front are set to be disappointed. Just when you thought politics couldn’t get any more exciting several newspapers are reporting…

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