politicalbetting.com – Page 777 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

10/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The female-male gap widens With so many different elections in 50 different states taking place on November 6th it can be hard to discern specific trends. One polling series is the Generic Congressional Vote and the latest numbers we have are in the CNN report overnight and posted above. The big number is that the survey shows the Democrats with a 13% margin over the Republicans which, even taking into account local variations should be enough for the them to…

Read More Read More

Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

9/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I like big buts and I cannot lie. If I am presented with a rosy apple, I look for the worm. If I’m covered with dark clouds, I look for the silver lining. I’m that guy who likes to say “I think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that”. I’m unapologetic: it usually is more complicated than that. Sometimes, however, important simple truths are hiding in plain sight. Hercule Poirot noted that on one occasion he could not…

Read More Read More

Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

9/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The first public surveys since Corbyn’s August Scottish initiative It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move Ahead of the SNP conference which is currently going on there have been three new Scotland-only polls – the first since July. All show LAB still in third…

Read More Read More

Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

9/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s been more movement on the TMay exit year market on Betfair as seen in the Betdata.io chart. The 57% that next year is now rated is a record high and reflects the view that she’ll hang on until the UK is out of the EU at the end of March and then she’ll stand aside. But will she? That she is still in Number 10 today is a remarkable achievement given that last year she took the advice from…

Read More Read More

If there is a second referendum then the hardline Brexiters should take the blame

8/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Excellent by @robertshrimsley on the dangers of a 2nd referendum https://t.co/bOi05az8Y4 pic.twitter.com/2o3LwcjRyU — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 8, 2018 The article from Robert Shrimsley of the FT linked to here is just about the most clear-headed one I’ve seen recently on where Brexit stands and where things might be heading. He argues strongly that a second vote won’t settle the matter and suggests that the best route for Remainers is to accept that they lost and seek to “to thwart…

Read More Read More

New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

8/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In what we in the UK would describe as a poll of marginals the Washington Post is reporting a survey in 69 key Congressional districts which overall voted 56% Republican to 41% Democratic last time, This latest survey by the Schar School at George Mason University has the Democrats on 50% to the Republicans on 46%. In UK terms that represents quite some swing. The paper notes that they went for this approach because “we know less about the opinions…

Read More Read More

Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

8/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What’s going to be the Texas Senatorial race result on November 6th? I’ve just got my copy of the Phil Cowley/Denis Kavanagh study of the 2017 general election. As well as an excellent narrative on what was going on there’s also a detailed statistical analysis of the results from John Curtice and others. This series was started for GE1945 and has continued unbroken ever since. From what I’ve read so far it really is excellent read and superb reference book…

Read More Read More

The end of the court of Sessions?

7/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain. There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General. I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally…

Read More Read More