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Six Impossible Things Before Brexit

23/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

With six months to go, the ultimate denouement of Brexit looks as murky as ever. That hasn’t stopped plenty of people trying to peer through the vapours. If you are going to speculate, go right ahead, but it’s probably best not base your speculations on things that are downright wrong. So let’s take a stroll past some of the more common misconceptions. 1) If Britain proposes something different (whether a recantation or a hardening of stance), the EU won’t necessarily…

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New ComRes poll finds LAB catching up with the Tories as the one best described as “The Nasty Party”

22/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A new ComRes poll commissioned by Jewish News has found the CON lead over the label ‘the nasty party’, memorably coined by TMay at the Party’s 2002 Conference, is now being challenged by Corbyn’s LAB. The poll found that while 34% said they thought the Conservatives are ‘the nasty party’, almost as many – 31% – said the same of LAB. The poll also found that fully twice as many British voters – 48% – think Labour was a more…

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The biggest US midterms battle: Beto O’Rourke’s Texas effort to unseat Ted Cruz

22/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Senate race that could deprive the Republicans of their majority Of all the elections that are taking place across the US in November the one that’s attracting the most attention is the effort by Beto O’Rourke to take the Texas Senate seat held by Ted Cruz. Overnight there was the first TC debate as featured in the video clip above. What looked like a certain hold by the Republican is now being rated as a toss-up following an energetic…

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TMay hasn’t had front pages like this since she made the fateful decision to call GE2017

22/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

21/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg. As can be seen both are in negative territory but Corbyn’s on net minus 42% while TMay is at minus 33%. To put that into context – in July 2017 Corbyn was on…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should Labour offer a ‘people’s vote’?

21/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour’s interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit Labour gathers in Liverpool to talk about itself

21/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Meanwhile Phil Collins is dead right – while the Tories go through their Brexit travails all Corbyn's LAB wants to talk about is itself https://t.co/NYSLTbXBkN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2018 Today’s Times column by Phillip Collins hits the nail on the head about Labour and its current state. “..The issues of the hour are historic. Are any of the half-formed answers to the Irish border question at all practicable? Will the strong desire of the European Union 27…

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Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved

20/9/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Punters are hanging on to their cash Given the enormity of what’s happened at the EU Salzburg summit I though it useful to look at reaction across a range of market on the Betfair exchange: Next UK General Election most seats It was CON 50% chance to LAB 45% on Betfair 24 hours ago and the position hasn’t moved UK to leave the EU by 29/03/2019 This was a 63.5% chance 24 hours ago and is now a 62.5% one….

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