New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

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In what we in the UK would describe as a poll of marginals the Washington Post is reporting a survey in 69 key Congressional districts which overall voted 56% Republican to 41% Democratic last time, This latest survey by the Schar School at George Mason University has the Democrats on 50% to the Republicans on 46%. In UK terms that represents quite some swing. The paper notes that they went for this approach because “we know less about the opinions…

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Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

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What’s going to be the Texas Senatorial race result on November 6th? I’ve just got my copy of the Phil Cowley/Denis Kavanagh study of the 2017 general election. As well as an excellent narrative on what was going on there’s also a detailed statistical analysis of the results from John Curtice and others. This series was started for GE1945 and has continued unbroken ever since. From what I’ve read so far it really is excellent read and superb reference book…

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The end of the court of Sessions?

The end of the court of Sessions?

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Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain. There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General. I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally…

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If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

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Don’t be seduced by massive Johnson leads. History suggests Boris isn’t as personally popular as the polls would have you believe. The Times reported earlier on this week that An aide to the campaigning guru Sir Lynton Crosby was seen at Boris Johnson’s home yesterday morning, hours before his conference rally. In the clearest sign yet of how closely the former foreign secretary is working with Sir Lynton’s company, Mimi Randolph, a staffer at CTF Partners, was pictured leaving his…

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The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

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So which pollsters’ numbers do you prefer Conference season is now over and we now face the final few months before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. UK politics is set to go through a period of turmoil and there’s not an insignificant chance that there could be an early general election. Mrs. May’s wonderful dance sequence prior to her Birmingham conference speech might have diverted attention for a short while but decisions that could impact on the nation…

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The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

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Republican Senators fear Trump and his voters more than anything Brett Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed today as the newest member of the US Supreme Court. His behaviour in front of the Senate Committee – aggressive, threatening, overly emotional, highly partisan, evasive – would have been surprising for a nominee to an Executive branch position; as a candidate for the country’s highest court, where you might think that cool minds, sober judgement and lofty impartiality would be called for,…

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If LAB was really concerned about Corbyn’s 2014 Tunisia coverage then complaint documentation deadlines would have been met

If LAB was really concerned about Corbyn’s 2014 Tunisia coverage then complaint documentation deadlines would have been met

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Could the Jewish Telegraph’s coverage have prompted the move? JEWISH TELEGRAPH: Terror wreath: did Corbyn lie? #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/00ITpLm6yL — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) October 4, 2018 Now LAB’s alleged antisemitism is back on the news agenda LAB asks regulator to reopen cemetery coverage complaint afrer failing to meet deadline for submission of paper https://t.co/wkWge4csjF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2018 Yesterday, see top Tweet, the Jewish Telegraph seized on Labour’s failure to follow through on its complaint to the press…

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Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

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The shockwaves of June 8th 2017 continue The Speccies Isabel Hardman has an excellent piece under the heading “Why the Tories feel so spooked by Jeremy Corbyn”. She argues that some of the messages from the LAB leader have the potential to resonate. She goes on: I understand that the reason Labour has decided to talk so much about the way capitalism has left certain voters behind is that recent polling carried out by the party found it had strong…

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