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The real weakness of the threats of PM Corbyn is that many LAB MPs don’t like the idea either

11/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Well, it would certainly encourage a lot of Labour MPs to support her — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 11, 2018 With TMay seemingly in a total mess trying to maintain support for her Brexit plans while now being opposed by the Brextremists and the DUP lots of speculative scenarios are being played out. James Forsyth in an interesting Speccie post linked to above raises one one scenario with the risk of PM Corbyn being just about the final argument that…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

10/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland. Topics discussed include: 1) How support for Scottish independence has changed over time and the impact that Brexit could have 2) When the next Scottish Independence vote will happen 3) What’s going on in voting intention polls for Holyrood and Westminster and what this means for the main players north of the border…

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Victorious sponge. When competing freedoms clashed in a bakery

10/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

UK supreme court backs bakery that refused to make gay wedding cake https://t.co/fEoUi7dyUH — The Guardian (@guardian) October 10, 2018 George Bernard Shaw is one of those writers, like Spenser, Milton and Dr Johnson, who is now much less read than known. Nowadays all that most people know of him is My Fair Lady (ironically, he refused permission in his lifetime to allow Pygmalion to be adapted into a musical) and the odd quotation. One of those quotations came to…

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First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

10/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The female-male gap widens With so many different elections in 50 different states taking place on November 6th it can be hard to discern specific trends. One polling series is the Generic Congressional Vote and the latest numbers we have are in the CNN report overnight and posted above. The big number is that the survey shows the Democrats with a 13% margin over the Republicans which, even taking into account local variations should be enough for the them to…

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Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

9/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I like big buts and I cannot lie. If I am presented with a rosy apple, I look for the worm. If I’m covered with dark clouds, I look for the silver lining. I’m that guy who likes to say “I think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that”. I’m unapologetic: it usually is more complicated than that. Sometimes, however, important simple truths are hiding in plain sight. Hercule Poirot noted that on one occasion he could not…

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Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

9/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The first public surveys since Corbyn’s August Scottish initiative It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move Ahead of the SNP conference which is currently going on there have been three new Scotland-only polls – the first since July. All show LAB still in third…

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Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

9/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s been more movement on the TMay exit year market on Betfair as seen in the Betdata.io chart. The 57% that next year is now rated is a record high and reflects the view that she’ll hang on until the UK is out of the EU at the end of March and then she’ll stand aside. But will she? That she is still in Number 10 today is a remarkable achievement given that last year she took the advice from…

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If there is a second referendum then the hardline Brexiters should take the blame

8/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Excellent by @robertshrimsley on the dangers of a 2nd referendum https://t.co/bOi05az8Y4 pic.twitter.com/2o3LwcjRyU — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 8, 2018 The article from Robert Shrimsley of the FT linked to here is just about the most clear-headed one I’ve seen recently on where Brexit stands and where things might be heading. He argues strongly that a second vote won’t settle the matter and suggests that the best route for Remainers is to accept that they lost and seek to “to thwart…

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