Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

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Video above: The WSJ’s take on Florida allowing felons to vote. On Tuesday Floridians will vote on whether to allow one and a half millions felons the right to vote, the polling shows that it is likely the voters will back restoration of voting rights for felons. Several respected observers have said felons being allowed to vote might have no impact in the results in the sunshine state, although some say it will benefit the Democrats, some say it may…

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Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

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  Whenever I want something sensational to read, I look at my Betfair account.  It’s not always sensationally good, but there’s always something to consider.  The markets I usually end up checking out are the long term ones: next Prime Minister, next Conservative leader and next Labour leader in particular.  These three markets have much in common and indeed overlap heavily: the next Prime Minister is likely to be one of Jeremy Corbyn, the next Conservative leader and the next…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

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In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday’s vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @PatrickRuffini Tweet PS if you have missed the other episodes in our mini-series we have interview Trump supporter and former White House Communications Director Anthony…

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Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

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At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…

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Ladbrokes offering 50/1 that Cameron will be next Foreign Sec and 16/1 that he’ll return to the cabinet by end of 2019

Ladbrokes offering 50/1 that Cameron will be next Foreign Sec and 16/1 that he’ll return to the cabinet by end of 2019

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The ex-PM who took the Brexit referendum gamble said to want to make a return I’m not quite sure how we should take the reports first in the Sun and then in other media outlets about the former PM’s desires. The Standard reports: “..A friend of the 52-year-old suggested he would like to join the Cabinet after a new Tory leader succeeds Theresa May. The source told The Sun: “David is dedicated to public service and has often said he…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

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As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump’s approval rating and what to look out for in 2020. You can listen to this episode below. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet PS – For those that missed it you can check out the thread…

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The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

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The big Brexit news today has been has been that the National Crime Agency is investigating Arron Banks and others over suspected offence relating to the funding of the referendum campaign. The news came from the Electoral Commission which stated that it had referred the cases because of suspicions that a “number of criminal offences may have been committed”. In particular it said it suspected Mr Banks was not the “true source” of loans to the campaign and the money…

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Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

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YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings stable amongst Leave voters But Corbyn struggling amongst GE2017 LAB voters As we approach what could be a very critical time in British politics with a possible Brexit deal only weeks away James Bowley has shared with me the above charts based on looking at the detailed data of all the published YouGov voting intention polls since the last general election. The good news for the Tories and Mrs May is that after recovering from the…

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