At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll Why LAB should worry less about supporters who backed leave On general election day last year the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a huge 14,000 sample poll to find out amongst other things why people had voted as they did and to tryto understand better what had happened. The survey was similar to US exit polls where much more than voting data is collected. The BBC/Sky/ITV UK exit poll is solely about…

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Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

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Those polled responded along strong partisan lines Anybody expecting that President Trump’s widely criticised approach at the Helsinki summit with Putin would hurt him amongst his base is going to be disappointed. The first polls are now out and they show the same picture – very solid support from Republican Party voters for the Presidents handling of Russian leader, Putin Axios/SurveyMonkey has 79% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling. This compares with 91% of Democrats and 62% of independents who…

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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

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Betdata.io I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row. The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read. One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT…

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BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

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Betdata.io With so much up in the air in British politics at the moment there’s been a lot of movement in the next CON leader betting. It is beginning to look as though Theresa May will survive until the autumn at least and maybe beyond and the question is who will actually replace her? Yesterday, of course, the ex Foreign Secretary secured a lot of coverage for his resignation address to MPs. Although it was nothing like the dramatic event…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s…

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BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

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It certainly wasn’t up to the Sir Geoffrey Howe standard The key points from Boris Johnson's speech in the Commons, from @Steven_Swinford * 'It is not too late to save Brexit. We have time'* Chequers is a 'permanent limbo and democratic disaster'* The Govt has spent past 18 months in a 'fog of self-doubt'https://t.co/Y7VACzOQNn pic.twitter.com/KIGzZ3PPwo — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) July 18, 2018 Boris Johnson says "the pound soared" after May's Lancaster House speech. Value of pound on day of speech…

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PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

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The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely. In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear? (And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)…

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The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

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RCP Judging by the US media there’s no doubt that Helsinki was bad for Trump. But was it? Will he still retain the support of his base? What will be the electoral impact of yesterday. US polling uses leader ratings much more widely than the experience in the UK and the first post meeting ratings numbers are eagerly awaited. As can be seen from the chart he has been enjoying something of a recovery. Will that be sustained or will…

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