Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

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BBC 5 Live ?@JPonpolitics? Sir Graham Brady, 1922 Chairman, on letters – and lies pic.twitter.com/udTFfVr7z4 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 BBC @JPonpolitics Sir Graham Brady I/v I don’t support a no confidence vote at this time, says Sir Graham pic.twitter.com/uE74yQT1Lm — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1063925003325005825 The comments from Sir Graham Brady & the ERG in the Sunday Times makes me think the ERG don't have the numbers to oust Mrs May. The ERG…

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Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

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A mixture of ambition, ego, a low nomination threshold, and a very democratic voting system allows a lot of Tories to stand for leader. Since the current Tory leadership rules were first used in 2001 the highest number of candidates to be on the first ballot paper is five, in 2001 and 2016, so I can see why people may wish to back the 8/15 on there being fewer 7 candidates, however I think the value is betting on there…

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The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

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Problems building on the DUP's home patch over its approach to TMay's Brexit deal https://t.co/qFJd5AhNnA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2018 The assumption that the DUP will automatically oppose TMay’s Brexit deal might not be the case as pressure is building up amongst the Province’s farmers many of whom support the party. The Observer is reporting that the powerful Northern Ireland Farmer’s Union has told Arlene Foster’s party that its 10 Westminster MPs should vote for the deal. The…

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How referendums can add to the democratic process

How referendums can add to the democratic process

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Principles for calling referendums This thread header is a response to Mr Meeks’ thread of 6 November, in which he wrote, “we can at least set out some principles for calling referendums.”  It does not ask whether referendums are desirable (though I believe they are). Instead, I look at how the UK political system should accommodate more direct democracy in the future. International experience An excellent study by UCL in 2017 noted 550 nationwide referendums in 43 stable democracies between…

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So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

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    May’s numbers don’t add up for now. Is the threat of No Deal enough to change minds? You have to salute her indefatigability. Despite the Prime Minister being just about the only MP prepared to champion the government’s Brexit Deal, despite the loss of another two cabinet ministers, plus various other more junior ones, despite the letters of No Confidence openly going in to the Chairman of the 1922, despite the three hours of parliamentary pummelling she took…

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At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

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That’s now dropped sharply When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded.  The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages. As can be seen this morning from about 0900 the money started piling on Mrs May going before the end of the year…

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Mad Tory Friday part 2…..

Mad Tory Friday part 2…..

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2pm update: here are the MPs who have admitted sending letters to Graham Brady pic.twitter.com/go6jDLvB3s — Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) November 16, 2018 Our second edition ?@EveningStandard?: Tory rebels claim they have the numbers to force a confidence motion – but do they? pic.twitter.com/MVApRNRYQR — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) November 16, 2018 Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is…

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Moggsy’s TM confidence vote gamble could rebound into a confidence vote on himself

Moggsy’s TM confidence vote gamble could rebound into a confidence vote on himself

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He’ll look weak if not enough fellow CON MPs follow Yesterday the old Etonian father of six, Jacob Rees-Mogg, took a massive gamble when he had an impromptu press conference outside the palace of Westminster in which he declared his lack of confidence in the state-school educated Mrs May. He announced that he had sent a letter calling for a confidence vote and it looked as though the other 47 letters needed were either there or would be arriving quickly….

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