NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

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As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump’s approval rating and what to look out for in 2020. You can listen to this episode below. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet PS – For those that missed it you can check out the thread…

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The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

The criminal investigation into Arron Banks/LeaveEU funding won’t stop Brexit but could strengthen TMay’s hand

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The big Brexit news today has been has been that the National Crime Agency is investigating Arron Banks and others over suspected offence relating to the funding of the referendum campaign. The news came from the Electoral Commission which stated that it had referred the cases because of suspicions that a “number of criminal offences may have been committed”. In particular it said it suspected Mr Banks was not the “true source” of loans to the campaign and the money…

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Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

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YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings stable amongst Leave voters But Corbyn struggling amongst GE2017 LAB voters As we approach what could be a very critical time in British politics with a possible Brexit deal only weeks away James Bowley has shared with me the above charts based on looking at the detailed data of all the published YouGov voting intention polls since the last general election. The good news for the Tories and Mrs May is that after recovering from the…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

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This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors. The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci. You can listen to the show below: Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an…

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The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

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Brexit secretary confirms deal expected by mid-November https://t.co/Xo4xGOB5SG — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 31, 2018 Raab names November 21st as the date There’ve been developments in the government’s negotiations with the EU on Brexit, with Dominic Raab, saying in a letter to MPs on the Brexit committee that he will be willing to give evidence once a deal was finalised and that they currently expected November 21st to be suitable. It appears that the government is looking to finalise a…

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Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

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Debenhams, House of Fraser, Homebase and more – this is the grim story of the UK high street so far this yearhttps://t.co/UhZU4a9v0E — Manchester News MEN (@MENnewsdesk) October 25, 2018 This has been a torrid time for many retailers. Every week brings news of another familiar high street shop on the skids. House of Fraser, Toys R Us, Maplins, Poundworld and Gaucho have all gone bust. Many household name chains are closing stores at a rate of knots. Rumours abound of big names struggling. …

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After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

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The longest lasting poll series in British politics comes to an end. This is something of a sad moment in British politics. The longest lasting polling series, ICM for the Guardian, has come to an end after a total of 30 years. Polls have been running from the firm in the paper at least monthly since January 1989 when ICM replaced Marplan as the paper’s voting intention provider. The first one, as seen in the chart above, was in January…

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It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

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Chart Betdata.io ATTENTION “Brenda from Bristol”! I can’t remember a time when there has been so much uncertainty about the short and medium-term of British politics. With the Article 50 date for Brexit less than 6 months away and still no deal with the EU it is extremely difficult to project what’s going to happen in the coming months. Labour is pressing for a general election and will use its MP numbers and what other power it has in the…

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